转载:Warren Buffett Knew These 9 Fund Managers Would Ou
2012-10-07 15:13阅读:
巴菲特列举的格雷厄姆多德部落里面的9个超级投资者,自1983年后,有2个无从考察(包括芒格),有2个落败市场(包括芒格同党,不过证据不是很充足)。
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Warren Buffett Knew These 9 Fund Managers Would Outperform The
Market
By Meena Krishnamsetty Pub
Published: December 1, 2010 at 9:04 pm
Warren
Buffett knew 9 fund managers who followed value investing
approach would beat the market. In 1984, he gave a speech
arguing that the
Efficient Market Hypothesis is bogus. He listed 9 fund managers
who always bought the business -not the stock- and performed much
better than did the market. He claimed he didn’t pick these people
because they already had an outstanding track record. He said he
selected these people years ago based upon their framework
for investment decision-making. Of course
finance professors didn’t believe him, and many questioned his
motivation. Warren Buffett was arguing that markets were
inefficient, whereas professors were arguing they were.
Well, we know one way to settle this.
We don’t really know when exactly Warren Buffett initially picked
these 9 fund managers. But we know that he picked them by 1984. We
can compare their performance to index funds’ performance after
1984 and find out whether these guys really can
beat the market. Here are the 9 fund managers Warren Buffett
selected:
1. Walter J. Schloss: Between 1956 and 1984, Walter J. Schloss
returned 16.1% per year after expenses whereas the S&P 500
returned 8.4%. Schloss accepted money from investors until 2000.
His nearly five decade performance was 15.3% vs. 10% for the
S&P 500. Walter J. Schloss managed to beat the S&P 500 by
around 1 percentage points
after 1984. Warren Buffett was
successful in this pick.
2. Tweedy, Browne Inc.: Between 1968 and 1983, Tweedy Browne
returned 16% per year after expenses whereas the S&P 500
returned 7%. Tweedy Browne’s recent performance isn’t as robust as
its performance under Tom Knapp and Ed Anderson. Since 1993, Tweedy
Browne value fund returned 8.73% per year after expenses vs. 8.35%
for the S&P 500. Nothing spectacular, but still beats the
market.
3. Warren Buffett: Between 1957 and 1969, Buffett’s hedge fund
returned 23.8% after expenses vs. 7.4% for the DJIA. After 1983,
Warren Buffett managed to beat the market by more than 10% annually
after adjusting for size, value and momentum effects. Since 2000,
Warren Buffett managed to beat the market by 6 percentage points
annually, but his alpha is close to zero (see
Warren Buffett’s Alpha). Warren Buffett is one of the richest
people on the face of this planet simply because he managed to beat
the market.
4. Sequoia Fund: Bill Ruane managed to
beat the market by 7.2% per year after expenses between 1970
and 1983. Bill Ruane beat the market by more than 2% after 1983
until his death in 2005. The excess returns are not as high as 7%
per year but still a respectable 2 percentage points per year.
Warren Buffett was successful in this pick too.
5. Charles Munger: Between 1962 and 1975, Charlie Munger beat the
DJIA by 8.7 percentage points
per year. Then, he went to
Berkshire Hathaway, so we excluded him from the analysis.
6. Rick Guerin (Pacific Partners Ltd.): Rick Guerin returned 23.6%
vs. S&P 500’s 7.8% between 1965 and 1983. We couldn’t find his
returns for the post-1983 period. However,
in this article the author says that Rick Guerin underperformed
the market for six years in a row. So we’ll assume he couldn’t beat
the market after 1983.
Warren Buffett picked the wrong guy this
time. (老K注:想当初,这个老兄的成绩在部落里相当优秀,属于芒格式的集中投资派)
7. Stan Perlmeter: Stan Perlmeter returned 19% vs. the DJIA’s 7%
return between 1965 and 1983. We couldn’t find any returns for Stan
Perlmeter for the post-1983 period. Perlmeter Investments was one
of the victims of Bernie Madoff. So any returns would have been
contaminated by Madoff effect anyway. We’ll assume Stan Perlmeter
couldn’t beat the market after 1983.
Stan Perlmeter picked the
wrong guy (Madoff) and Warren Buffett picked Stan.
8. Washington Post Master Trust: This n fund has to invest 25% of
assets in fixed interest instruments. The stock investments were
placed with
value-oriented managers. We couldn’t find post-1983 returns for
this fund. As a result, we will exclude it from our analysis. It’s
performance is probably no different than
the next
n
fund’s.
9. FMC Corporation n Fund: This fund actually doesn’t pick stocks,
but strictly invests with managers who have a value approach. The
fund managed to beat the S&P 500 index by 1.5 percentage points
between 1975 and 1983. Since it invests in value stocks, it
probably beat the market since 1983. For the 10 years ending 2009,
FMC’s n Fund returned 6.77% vs. -0.95% for the S&P 500.
This one goes to Warren Buffett too.
Overall Warren Buffett beats
Eugene Fama and the Efficient Market Hypothesis crowd by
5-2. He was advocating value investing way before Fama came up
with the lame excuse of “value effect” being a risk factor and
that’s why value investing outperforms the market. Too bad
he didn’t provide this explanation until 10 years after Buffett’s
defense of
value investing. Clueless Efficient Markets professors were
dismissing value investing in 1984.