新浪博客

美股：Are You Ready for 12/10? 周四将是有趣的一天

2009-12-10 05:47阅读：

http://blog.sina.cn/dpool/blog/u/1371346280

Today's rally from the low is expected and right on my call for the short-term. I have said (美股：准备好12/10的跳空高开?? Gap and Crap 2009-12-10 01:53:37）ahead of time. If the recent history repeats itself again, tomorrow, 12/10, Thursday will be a big gap-up day. The chance is very high. I do not know what would trigger the gap-up, actually I could only care less about so called “the reason”. Because I believe that 'fundamentals always come out in the charts FIRST'.
If you have not understood the reasons why I called a rally from today to tomorrow with a big gap-up open in my previous post today, please allow me to give my explanations here, actually every reason has been noted on charts. Let's use 2 charts I posted earlier today.
Reasons:
1) When CPC’s MA20 (the blue curve) reaches highs at the top range, the next day, the market gapped up big in the past as shown as vertical blue dished-lines (Chart 1) and vertical green lines (Chart 2).
2) The market held the bottom range which has been established for a month. IF the top is in last Friday, then the Wave 1 down is supposed to stop at the bottom range without a violation of the range. The market always intends to fool as many people as possible from both sides of trading.
3) A possible Head and Shoulder pattern was formed during today’s trading. I noted on these 2 charts during the trading hours and showed the pattern in my early post.
4) I want to say that the most bullish sign in a short-term is Transportation Index (the pink chart) as shown in Chart 1. It seems to form an “a-e bullish flag” pattern with a slight break out at the close.

Chart 1.
美股：Are <wbr>You <wbr>Ready <wbr>for <wbr>12/10? <wbr>周四将是有趣的一天

Chart 2.
美股：Are <wbr>You <wbr>Ready <wbr>for <wbr>12/10? <wbr>周四将是有趣的一天

5) The drop from last Friday’s top to today’s low looked to me as a Falling Wedge pattern. It is, therefore, that a rally/bounce as Wave 2 is expected. (see Chart 3 and 4, an intraday chart and after the close).

Chart 3. SPX 15' intraday chart.
美股：Are <wbr>You <wbr>Ready <wbr>for <wbr>12/10? <wbr>周四将是有趣的一天

Chart 4. SPX 15' at the close.
美股：Are <wbr>You <wbr>Ready <wbr>for <wbr>12/10? <wbr>周四将是有趣的一天

I must say this clear, however, Dec 10, Thursday could be one of tricky Thursdays in the U.S. market. IF it turns out to be true, watch out ... a big gap-up and trading higher, then reversing to the downside around 1-3PM on 12/10 or 'Gap and Crap' = sell/short the gap. If it goes the way I just said, then this Thursday can be qualified as the tricky Thursday. It will be followed by a fast selling into next week as the Wave 3 shown on my charts.

No one is perfect in trading the market, if this Thursday gaps up, trades high and closes around the day high, then Friday’s open must be the selling point in order to maintain my call for THE top over the past weekend. So…pay attention to the trading range (top and bottom) which has been traded for an exact month (from Nov 9th to Dec 9th). If it breaks out the top range again, I would keep my “top” call for 3 days in case a fake break-out occurs. Watch out the volume if the break-out comes, it must be associated with a decent volume to confirm a real break-out. All I know is that the next move would be fast and violent, LOL.

Today’s volume is pathetic, so…it could give a better chance to call “trick Thursday” for tomorrow. Stay alert!!!

Finally, a few words about USD and Gold.

UUP (USD) 60' intraday on 12/8, started to expect a pullback in dollar as a possible rising wedge forming and negative divergences found in RSI etc.
美股：Are <wbr>You <wbr>Ready <wbr>for <wbr>12/10? <wbr>周四将是有趣的一天

UUP (USD) 60' the close on 12/9. It appears that a wedge broke-down has occured and may suggest a further pull back as Wave 2 or B.
美股：Are <wbr>You <wbr>Ready <wbr>for <wbr>12/10? <wbr>周四将是有趣的一天

GLD (Gold) 60' intraday on 12/9, as I said in my previous post today, Gold is ending its Wave A down around the gap 3 and Wave B may start as Dollar is pulling back. 美股：Are <wbr>You <wbr>Ready <wbr>for <wbr>12/10? <wbr>周四将是有趣的一天

GLD (Gold) 60' the close on 12/9. The 1st violent and fast move down in Gold may have ended today. However, Wave B rally may not last long and will be followed by a short down as Wave C. This count actually is bullish for a long run in Gold (next 3 months). If it goes with 1-5 count, then Gold may have a lot of down side to go.
美股：Are <wbr>You <wbr>Ready <wbr>for <wbr>12/10? <wbr>周四将是有趣的一天


GOOD LUCK TO EVERYONE !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

我的更多文章

下载客户端阅读体验更佳

APP专享