美股：What A Day !!! Tricky Thursday !!!

2009-12-11 06:11阅读：

http://blog.sina.cn/dpool/blog/u/1371346280

As always, the market did its best to fool both sides of anticipants. I called this Thursday as one of “Tricky Thursdays”during the trading hours yesterday. I explained what “Tricky Thursday” means before in my blog. But it was a long ago. Let me give some explanations here again.
1) Tricky Thursday happens on Thursday of the week before the option expiration week of the month. It intents to fool option traders and rebalances those trades in options.
2) Tricky Thursday does not happen in each month of the year, but comes from time to time.
3) The close of a tricky Thursday is important. It should close a direction (up or down) which opposite to the direction of the original direction. In other words, it would be opposite to where the market should/will go.
4) At the end of tricky Thu

rsday, it should be closed by not much from previous day’s close. Slightly in green or red, depends which direction the market is truly going in next coming day.

Now, let’s review today’s action. SPX closed in green with a 6.40 gain (slightly up), SPY closed at 110.64 which is below its open at 110.70, so, SPY has a “reversal” BLACK candle. Nasdaq closed with a long tail Black bar, a typical reversal candle. Yesterday’s volume was pathetic, and it is ever worse today. Based on what I have seen, I am confident to call this is a tricky Thursday, meaning the market would re-start its “original” direction in coming days. If I am right, the original direction of the market is down from last Friday's high.

Here are some highlights in my previous posts from yesterday.
1) Gap and Crap, sell the gap.
2) Reversal between 1-3PM.
3) 2 O’clock push up and reversal.
Check the intraday chart below, everything happened and noted on the chart. IF it is a small bull flag from the open to the close, then a small push up would be coming tomorriw morning. But I do not count on it.

美股：What <wbr>A <wbr>Day <wbr>!!! <wbr> <wbr>Tricky <wbr>Thursday <wbr>!!!

In many indications I am following, here is one of them to call an important top is in, if not THE top, lol, just for your thoughts.

Dec. 7, NAA50 daily, Nasdaq stocks above their 50-day moveing average. As you can see, since late September, this indicator has been weaking, and becoming weaker and weaker WHILE the broad market made 2 new highs. That tells me that the market is in process of an important top. More importantly, it has formed a bear flag pattern since late October as shown by 2 pink lines.

Dec 10, NAA50, it hit the top pink line and is turning down?!?!?!

I will not write any more posts in coming days perhaps in weeks IF I am right about the market in near-term future, UNLESS something I feel important. After this down turn toward Xmas, then there would be so called “New Year rally” as a counter trend rally. I can not see that far, lol.

Below are charts of major U.S. indices with my predictions in near term.
SPX 60’
This is a round top, period.

12/4 SPX 15'
The original prediction

12/8 SPY 60' intraday
Slightly different wave count

12/9 SPX 15' indraday
The revised predition from 12/8, and conformed 12/8 intraday predicition on SPY

12/10 SPX 30'

12/10 SPX 15'
IF the sideway action in late today is a small bullish flag, then tomorrow morning may have a push up at the open and would be followed by a quick sell-off.