美股：当媒体喧嚣之时，我要再思考。
2013-06-21 08:34阅读：
今日美股的大跌，引来了媒体的喧嚣。在7:00-8:00PM的黄金时间，CNBC的“The
Kudlow
Report”的节目请来了一位金发女士，大谈看跌/放空美股。我不知各位是否可以看到下面的两个链接中的视频。如果你看不到，那么我将视频中的一段对话“复制”在此，这位金发女士（Abigail
Doolite）的观点用红体字标注了出来。不难看出这位女士的看跌观点，主持人在节目的最后称其为“a very
total, unmitigated bear”“彻头彻尾的熊”。
其实，在市场中，任何人都可以表达各自的观点。然而，今天，主流媒体公开播出“放空美股”，甚至给出放空的板块儿，这样的时候还是不多见吧。这一点，不得不让我对于我近期关于美股的观点再仔细想一想了。从我看顶的5月22日以来，我曾表示：这是本博在过去的一年又九个月以来，唯一的一次严重看跌美股。这足以见得：本博对于美股的这个顶部之重要性。然而，我看过这段节目之后，我也许需要重新审视我的“看顶看跌观”了。
让我们先看完我所看到的“系列ABC下跌”再说吧。。。也许还是个“ABC-牛旗”呢。我的系列ABC博文：
美股：套利交易与三次变阵。
2013-06-14
08:42
美股：“三次变阵”再次得到应验！！…
2013-06-20
22:20
美股：短线，明日反弹？？？
2013-06-21
05:15
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?play=1&video=3000177087#eyJ2aWQiOiIzMDAwMTc3MDg3IiwiZW5jVmlkIjoibUFNOVlCWmJyeW5IYTl5S0hnOE5mUT09IiwidlRhYiI6InRyYW5zY3JpcHQiLCJ2UGFnZSI6IiIsImdOYXYiOlsiwqBMYXRlc3QgVmlkZW8iXSwiZ1NlY3QiOiJBTEwiLCJnUGFnZSI6IjEiLCJzeW0iOiIiLCJzZWFyY2giOiIifQ==
welcome back,
everybody. i'm
larry cuddly. let's bring abigail
doolite, strategist. still with us, jim lecamp.
abigail, you have
been waiting patiently for a big market correction. the market's gone against you
right now.
this is your
correction. what are you thinking? what do your numbers show?
how long does this
correction continue, for example? i think
the real thing to think about here is volatility.
you've had building
volatility over the last month and it's been building into the sell-off
and i think we're
moving toward a 10% to 20% correction. last time i was on i was saying
20%
-- 10% to
20%. am i
right? we're
down 5%. so
you're saying we could go down another 15%. that is tough stuff. i feel
very strongly about it actually in terms of looking at
the charts and the
technicals that i do, not only with the s&p
500, but cross-asset
charting and
also with the vix, i think we'll see the s&p drop down to a
minimum of
1532 and we may find
buyers, but there's
an excellent chance that we could see 1449
and that would be
fitting. what
leads us down another 14%.
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?play=1&video=3000177087#eyJ2aWQiOiIzMDAwMTc3MDg2IiwiZW5jVmlkIjoiNFd1dTBVaXNPRThUZFlRUCsveWZHZz09IiwidlRhYiI6InRyYW5zY3JpcHQiLCJ2UGFnZSI6IiIsImdOYXYiOlsiwqBMYXRlc3QgVmlkZW8iXSwiZ1NlY3QiOiJBTEwiLCJnUGFnZSI6IjEiLCJzeW0iOiIiLCJzZWFyY2giOiIifQ==
we're running out
of time. you
want to buy something? right now
i would be more inclined to recommend that investors hedge portfolios by
shorting and i do
have short recommendations on the spy and
the iyt, and the
iwm which are the s&p 500, dow transports and
small cap, xlb and
a short position for the near-term volatility and i do think the
treasury yield
2%. a
very total, unmitigated bear. you look great.
