华尔街上的一头名“熊”，Bill
Fleckenstein。这位先生的话还是值得聆听的。在我初下“股海”的很长一段时间里，我曾跟随过
Fleckenstein先生的市场观点。现在，我早已不再跟随任何参与者的观点了。然而，当我看到这位先生的观点时，我还是会十分尊敬地洗耳恭听的。下面的一段视频是今日盘后，CNBC对他的采访。有一点遗憾的是：这段视频似乎缺少了“采访”的后半段。直播的时候，我已睡着了，呵呵呵。。。我只知道：他是美股的“熊”，黄金的“牛”。 What do you make of what'sgoing on in the
markets? Well, I think you have totake a step back for a secondand why did the
S&P get to 1850. It got to 1850 largely
becausethe Fed printed a $1 trillionlast year and that created a lotof liquidity
and drove rates toa low place. Now, the market found
reasons to decline.
Is this the start of a new bearmarket?
Maybe. But, the Fed still has theability to come back and untaperwhatever they
want. The rally has been aboutconfidence
in the Fed and aboutits liquidity. So now, you got
awrinkle thrown in, whether it'sabout
FX, China, Taper, nobody
knowsfor sure. So, this may be
--obviously, the market started todecline. It will most likelyfeed on
itself, because it has been a momentum market in both directions.
But, the response by the Fed, ifthey
come in and, you know, twoweeks from now or two
monthsfrom now, whatever, start to back off ontapering and go in the otherdirection, the
market will haveanother rally. What I like to see
is...does that rally fail? You go through
earnings periods. The market hasn't been
reactingto negative news. The problemwith the stock market is... it'spriced too high
and it's toopriced too high because the bondmarket has been drive on thewrong price because
of the Fed. So, the world is not as good as1850 that everyone thought itwas.we'll have some negative newsand a decline. But
I don't know what is going to lead necessarily.
