基辛格:新冠病毒大流行将永远改变世界秩序
2020-04-07 14:28阅读:
The Coronavirus Pandemic
Will Forever Alter the World
Order
新冠病毒大流行将永远改变世界秩序
Henry
Kissinger
亨利·基辛格
The surreal atmosphere of the Covid-19
pandemic calls to mind how I felt as a young man in the 84th
Infantry Division during the Battle of the Bulge. Now, as in late
1944, there is a sense of inchoate danger, aimed not at any
particular person, but striking randomly and with devastation. But
there is an important difference between that faraway time and
ours. American endurance then was fortified by an ultimate national
purpose. Now, in a divided country, efficient and farsighted
government is necessary to overcome obstacles unprecedented in
magnitude and global scope. Sustaining the public trust is crucial
to social solidarity, to the relation of societies with each other,
and to international peace and stability.
Nations cohere and flourish on the
belief that their institutions can foresee calamity, arrest its
impact and restore stability. When the Covid-19 pandemic is over,
many countries’ institutions will be perceived as having failed.
Whether this judgment is objectively fair is irrelevant. The
reality is the world will never be the same after the coronavirus.
To argue now about the past only makes it harder to do what has to
be done.
Nations cohere and flourish on the
belief that their institutions can foresee calamity, arrest its
impact and restore stability. When the Covid-19 pandemic is over,
many countries’ institutions will be perceived as having failed.
Whether this judgment is objectively fair is irrelevant. The
reality is the world will never be the same after the coronavirus.
To argue now about the past only makes it harder to do what has to
be done.
The U.S. administration has done a
solid job in avoiding immediate catastrophe. The ultimate test will
be whether the virus’s spread can be arrested and then reversed in
a manner and at a scale that maintains public confidence in
Americans’ ability to govern themselves. The crisis effort, however
vast and necessary, must not crowd out the urgent task of launching
a parallel enterprise for the transition to the post-coronavirus
order.
Leaders are dealing with the crisis on
a largely national basis, but the virus’s society-dissolving
effects do not recognize borders. While the assault on human health
will—hopefully—be temporary, the political and economic upheaval it
has unleashed could last for generations. No country, not even the
U.S., can in a purely national effort overcome the virus.
Addressing the necessities of the moment must ultimately be coupled
with a global collaborative vision and program. If we cannot do
both in tandem, we will face the worst of each.
Drawing lessons from the development
of the Marshall Plan and the Manhattan Project, the U.S. is obliged
to undertake a major effort in three domains.
First, shore up global resilience to
infectious disease. Triumphs of medical science like the polio
vaccine and the eradication of smallpox, or the emerging
statistical-technical marvel of medical diagnosis through
artificial intelligence, have lulled us into a dangerous
complacency. We need to develop new techniques and
technologies for infection control and commensurate vaccines across
large populations. Cities, states and regions must consistently
prepare to protect their people from pandemics through stockpiling,
cooperative planning and exploration at the frontiers of
science.
Second, strive to heal the wounds to
the world economy. Global leaders have learned important lessons
from the 2008 financial crisis. The current economic crisis is more
complex: The contraction unleashed by the coronavirus is, in its
speed and global scale, unlike anything ever known in history. And
necessary public-health measures such as social distancing and
closing schools and businesses are contributing to the economic
pain. Programs should also seek to ameliorate the effects of
impending chaos on the world’s most vulnerable
populations.
Third, safeguard the principles of the
liberal world order. The founding legend of modern government is a
walled city protected by powerful rulers, sometimes despotic, other
times benevolent, yet always strong enough to protect the people
from an external enemy. Enlightenment thinkers reframed this
concept, arguing that the purpose of the legitimate state is to
provide for the fundamental needs of the people: security, order,
economic well-being, and justice. Individuals cannot secure these
things on their own. The pandemic has prompted an anachronism, a
revival of the walled city in an age when prosperity depends on
global trade and movement of people.
The world’s democracies need to defend
and sustain their Enlightenment values. A global retreat from
balancing power with legitimacy will cause the social contract to
disintegrate both domestically and internationally. Yet this
millennial issue of legitimacy and power cannot be settled
simultaneously with the effort to overcome the Covid-19 plague.
Restraint is necessary on all sides—in both domestic politics and
international diplomacy. Priorities must be
established.
We went on from the Battle of the
Bulge into a world of growing prosperity and enhanced human
dignity. Now, we live an epochal period. The historic challenge for
leaders is to manage the crisis while building the future. Failure
could set the world on fire.
(20200403《Wall Street
Journal》