GoogleshouldbuyFacebookatanycost世纪强文
2018-08-16 06:41阅读：
Google should buy Facebook at any cost
MAY 15, 2007JAMESCURRIER4
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Simplifying greatly, we might say the first wave of
the Internet was search. The one we’re in the middle of now
is social networking (it comes in many forms: myspace, orkut, msn
spaces, facebook, secondlife, yelp). To me right now,
Facebook looks like the clear winner of this phase. First,
every metric of their traffic and usage is formidable.
Second, they are truly excellent
with their product. I haven’t seen them make a significant
product or strategic mistake in the last 2 years, as they have been
inexorably migrating from their college market to a much broader
market appeal. (some say they should stick to their college
knitting, but I personally think their aims for world domination
are a much better path.) I think Yahoo made a big mistake
not to offer Facebook whatever they wanted last summer.
Their growth since Sept 06 shows they jumped to the
mainstream, and there’s no looking back now. Facebook has
an open field. They are the only social network that got
big while keeping their interface clean, and the name/brand is
universally appealing. Their product reflects the
understanding that they need to be a utility, just like Microsoft
and Google, (I mean, look at Facebook’s new design and UI,
including their crappy little Microsoft icons and Microsoft
pull down menus. They’re emulating MS whether they know it
consciously or not). Once they get the interface which gets
their people to search from Facebook instead of going to Google,
they’ll be able to cut a deal with Google and capture the bulk of
the value, say 80% of the revenue.
So what’s interesting about this social networking wave
is that like the operating system wave of the 1980’s, there is an
inherent, real network effect to the business. That’s not
true of Google. They have a network effect in the number of
advertisers bidding on their keywords, which makes them more
profitable per query than #2 Yahoo, but that effect doesn’t
translate into greater defensibility due to a fundamental network
effect for Google users. What Google has is a brand effect.
Very powerful, indeed. But not a true “I get more
out of using them because everyone else is using them.”
Facebook could achieve that true network effect in the next
24 months.
Further, like Microsoft was able to get into
applications in the 1980’s with Word, Excel, PowerPoint, Outlook,
Exchange, etc., Facebook can add a large number of social
apps on top of their platform. Classifieds, Music, search,
digital goods, virtual worlds, currencies. As Michael Birch
of Bebo said a few months ago, “I think the next big thing is still
social networking because it can morph into whatever is next.”
Very true. And Facebook can do just that, just as
Microsoft did.
If I were Yahoo, I would want to buy Facebook to stay
relevant. If I were Microsoft, I’d want to buy them so I
can stay relevant and have another shot at the network effect
operating system business. If I were Google, I’d want to
buy them for both those reasons, and also because I’d want to keep
Microsoft from getting back in the ring. But if I’m
Facebook I’d want to stay independent, so I could build the next
empire and maybe bring new ideas to how to make a difference in the
world through technology. Here’s hoping they stay
independent.
