“亚洲的世纪来了”！
2020-05-15 22:08阅读：
哈佛大学教授、美国前财长萨摩斯 Lawrence Summers 今天在英国FT
撰文说，“世界会因为肺炎危机而转向：亚洲的世紀来了”。
虽然我希望他是对的，但是我不同意他的结论。他也许不知道，亚洲人有很多自残的方法。
全文在此。
Covid-19 looks like a hinge in history，
by Lawrence Summers.
The pandemic will be remembered alongside 1914 Archduke
assassination and 1938 Munich Conference.
The Covid-19 crisis is the third major shock to the global system
in the 21st century, following the 2001 terror attacks and the 2008
financial crisis. I suspect it is by far the most
significant.
Although the earlier events will figure in history textbooks, both
9/11 and the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy will fade over time from
popular memory.
By contrast, I believe, the coronavirus crisis will still be
considered a seminal event generations from now. Students of the
future will learn of its direct effects and of the questions it
brings into sharp relief much as those of today learn about the
1914 assassination of the Archduke, the 1929 stock market crash, or
the 1938 Munich Conference.
These events were significant but their ultimate historical
importance lies in what followed.
This crisis is a massive global event in terms of its impact. Take
an American perspective. Almost certainly more Americans will die
of Covid-19 than have died in all the military conflicts of the
past 70 years. Some respectable projections suggest that more may
die than in all the wars of the 20th century. This spring’s job
losses have come at a far faster rate than at any point in history
and many forecasters believe that unemployment will be above its
post-Depression high for two years. As I write this from a small
town I have not left in two months, I suspect that no event since
the civil war has so dramatically changed the lives of so many
families.
A month ago it would have been reasonable to suppose that the
deaths, the economic losses and the social disruption would be
transitory. This looks much less plausible today. The US has given
its best shot (though certainly not the best possible shot) at
locking down for two months now and it has not brought daily
fatalities below 1,000 a day. Much of the country is now letting up
isolation policies. Similar things are happening in much of Europe
and new outbreaks have been reported in success-story countries
including Singapore, South Korea and Germany. It now looks very
plausible that there will not be an enduring improvement on the
current situation in the west.
As significant as these events are, what they portend may be even
more important, in two respects.
First, we appear to be living through a momentous transition in
what governments do. Historically the greatest threat to the lives
and security of ordinary people has come from either failures of
domestic governance — disorder or tyranny — or from hostile foreign
powers. This reality shaped the design of domestic and
international political institutions. Progress has been made. Not
only have we avoided a repeat of the world wars, but the chance
that an individual on our planet will die a violent death is now
about one-fifth of what it was a half century ago.
At the same time, threats that are essentially external to all
countries have risen in significance and now exceed traditional
ones. Over time, climate change threatens to engulf us. Aids,
Ebola, Mers, Sars and now Covid-19 suggest that pandemics will
recur with some frequency. Then there is terrorism, upheavals that
cause mass movements of refugees, and financial instability. We
also face challenges coming from new developments in artificial
intelligence and information technology. Coronavirus is helping to
usher in a world where security depends more on exceeding a
threshold of co-operation with allies and adversaries alike than on
maintaining a balance of power.
The second way in which Covid-19 may mark a transition is a shift
away from western democratic leadership of the global system. The
performance of the US government during the crisis has been dismal.
Basic tasks such as ensuring the availability of masks for health
workers who treat the sick have not been performed. Medium-term
planning has been conspicuous by its absence. Elementary safety
protocols have been ignored in the White House, putting the safety
of leaders at risk.
Yet, For all of the Trump administration’s manifest failures, the
US has not been a particularly poor performer compared to the rest
of the west. The UK, France, Spain, Italy and many others all have
Covid-19 death rates per capita well above the US. In contrast,
China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand all have death
rates well under 5 per cent of American levels. The idea that China
would be airlifting basic health equipment to the US would have
been inconceivable even a year ago.
If the 21st century turns out to be an Asian century as the 20th
was an American one, the pandemic may well be remembered as the
turning point. We are living through not just dramatic events but
what may be well be a hinge in history.
