负利率？也救不了花钱无度的人和国家。
2020-07-21 08:43阅读：1,684
今天英国金融时报发表了法兰西银行前行长、IMF前总裁的文章。
他说，利率太低，给借款的人和企业（以及政府！）一个幻觉：这钱便宜，以后还得起。那再多借一点。殊不知，即使是负利率，也可以压死你。
（1）低利率模糊了好项目与坏项目的区别，导致社会资源流向错误的地方；
（2）低利率让烂公司继续活下去，消耗社会资源；
（3）资产价格泡沫，
图、文。
Negative interest rates cannot save indebted economies
Setting the price of money below zero creates more problems than it
purports to solve. The writer, a former IMF managing director, was
governor of the Bank of France 1987-93
Can interest rates be eliminated to avoid servicing monumental
debts? The Covid-19 crisis, exacerbated by the consequences of
having hyper-accommodative monetary policy for too long, has led to
entire economies becoming over-indebted.
To deal with this situation where public leverage has broken all
peacetime records, some advocate monetising the debt through
central bank purchases of new bond issues and negative interest
rates. This is despite the historical record which shows that debt
restructurings have proven to be the most effective way to address
unsust
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ainable debts. n the context of economic depression, low inflation
and interest rates already at zero, central banks of course cannot
achieve negative real interest rates. So, instead, they may want to
retrieve some margin by deliberately setting negative rates.
Monetary policy would then regain its traditional driving role, as
it would be able to recreate negative real rates, despite a lack of
inflation.
Proponents of this approach have anticipated some of the
objections.
First, the liquidity trap. When rates are negative, investors tend
to shun bonds to avoid the “tax” caused by negative rates. One
result of this is an accumulation of savings, held in liquid assets
such as banknotes or cash accounts. But these barely help foster
productive investment.
Proponents of negative interest rates argue that the response to
this problem is to eliminate large denomination banknotes and
ensure that banks pass on the full cost of negative rates to their
depositors.
But should depositors be taxed and made to pay most of the cost of
emerging from this crisis? That would create major economic and
political problems in a country like France, where household
savings historically finance about 85 per cent of national
investment.
Then there is the risk of inflation. In the long run, any
anti-recessionary monetary policy must eliminate the difference
between potential growth and currently depressed growth rates
through money creation. The risk of inflation is nonetheless
considered unlikely given the scale of the Covid-19 crisis, the
slow recovery, and structural forces such as ageing, unemployment
and technological progress. Even if inflation does return, there
will still be time to turn the tide and return to more traditional
monetary policy.
Surprisingly, such proposals — which are designed to eliminate an
economic fundamental, namely the price or cost of saving — fail to
consider an essential question: the value of money. Money is based
solely on trust. But the risk of losing that trust will loom if
those responsible for it resign themselves to a role that leaves
them as suppliers of an unlimited commodity rather than as vigilant
guardians of its stability.
Moreover, the moral hazard of a system where indebtedness can be
permanent and infinite, regardless of debtors’ credit quality,
poses serious moral and political problems as it nationalises risk
and responsibility.
Negative rates also damage productive investment. They encourage
companies to take on cheap debt to pay for share buybacks instead
of investment; allow zombie companies to survive, lowering overall
productivity; encourage asset bubbles; obliterate the distinction
between profitable and unprofitable activities; and make little or
no distinction between good or poor quality debtors.
An economy where interest rates remain negative for decades will
not inspire confidence in entrepreneurs. Paradoxically, it will
create more precautionary savings.
The monetisation of government debt — most of which will end up on
central bank balance sheets — will also lead to creeping economic
nationalisation and crowd out profitable economic activity.
Everyone knows how excessive debt can lead to crisis. We have paid
the price of this causality for decades. And yet negative interest
rates open the credit floodgates to both governments and the
private sector. They are a source of financial instability and help
to create asset bubbles.
A more reasoned policy response to over-indebtedness is clear.
Undertake, where necessary, debt restructurings with a co-operative
spirit and a sense of market priorities. Scrutinise public budgets
and prioritise certain future expenditures, such as education,
health and research.
Last, undertake the structural reforms that have been postponed for
too long but are the only measures that can deliver a sound,
sustainable and better future.
The monetisation of government debt will lead to creeping economic
nationalisation, writes Jacques de Larosière.
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