中国宣布外债重组。
2020-08-31 04:59阅读：
中国宣布已经就20个穷国提出的债务重组方案达成协议。但是，中国究竟借了多少钱给第三世界国家，还是个谜。今天，英国金融时报报道。
China strikes debt deals with poor nations under G20 scheme.
Half of requests to defer payments have been agreed — but key
Angolan test awaits.
China says it has struck agreements with half of the 20 low-income
nations that have requested debt restructurings as part of their
efforts to tackle the coronavirus pandemic.
“Work on this is progressing well,” the Chinese foreign ministry
said, adding that the World Bank and major developed nations still
held most of the debt of a number of heavily indebted
countries.
Beijing is negotiating under a G20-led debt standstill scheme for
low-income countries launched in April, in a move designed to help
them focus on tackling the health and economic crises triggered by
the pandemic. The scheme, known as the Debt Service Suspension
Initiative, allows eligible countries to freeze bilateral loan
repayments until the end of the year.
China’s talks mark the country’s
first participation in a co-ordinated, multilateral debt relief
initiative. Analysts and private-sector investors say that a
deal with Angola, in particular — the largest recipient of Chinese
lending across Africa over the past two decades — will be
vital.
“You really can’t overstate the importance of Angola in the [DSSI],
which also ties into the general international response to the
impact of Covid-19 in the developing world,” said Mark Bohlund,
senior analyst at Redd Intelligence. Under the DSSI, “a lot of the
burden essentially falls on China,” he said.
Angola has received around a third of all Chinese lending to
Africa, and has by far the most to gain from the DSSI. About $2.6bn
in repayments due in 2020 could be frozen, representing 3.1 per
cent of gross domestic product, according to the World Bank.
Mozambique could defer a similarly large sum as a share of GDP —
about 2 per cent, or $295m.
Angola’s outstanding external government debt totals about $49bn,
of which 45 per cent is owed to China, according to the central
bank in Luanda. How close the two sides are to a deal is unclear,
but investors and analysts believe it could form a template.
“Given that China is such an important creditor for many low-income
countries, that’s a really big deal,” said Jan Friederich, head of
Middle East and Africa sovereign ratings at Fitch, the credit
rating agency.
Analysts note that tracking the progress of DSSI negotiations is
not easy, particularly given the weight of lending provided by
China, often without publicly available terms. Much lending has
been from state-owned Exim Bank, China’s export credit agency, but
some came from state-owned China Development Bank, which China has
sought to categorise as commercial lending.
“The issues all investors wrestle with are: we don’t know the
official size, we don’t know what is ‘officially official’ and what
is not, and we don’t know what the terms are going in or what the
terms are going out,” said Eric Baurmeister, head of emerging
markets fixed income at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, which
has a small exposure to Angolan government bonds.
Although China tended to do “bespoke debt restructuring on a
case-by-case basis”, Angola’s terms would inform those offered to
other DSSI-eligible countries, and could set a longer-term
precedent on the country’s willingness to relieve major borrowers
of their debts, said Greg Smith, emerging markets strategist at
M&G Investments.
The negotiations will also influence the IMF’s decision about
whether to release the next tranche of its $3.7bn loan to Angola —
a decision it delayed in July, said Jermaine Leonard, Fitch’s lead
Angola analyst.
The “big question” is “will the IMF sign off on [Angola’s] current
debt outlook, will they deem it sustainable?” said Mr Leonard. The
IMF is precluded from lending to countries with debts it considers
unlikely to be repaid. The IMF said this month the organisation was
in “continuing talks” with Angola.
The Angolan Finance Ministry did not respond to a request for
comment.
