MISJUDGMENTS EXPLAINED BY PSYCHOLOGY
2013-03-22 14:42阅读：
I came to the psychology of human misjudgment
almost against
my will; I rejected it until I realized that my attitude was
costing
me a lot of money, and reduced my ability to help everything I
loved.
- Charles Munger
Charles Munger says, 'If you want ro avoid irrationality, it helps
to understand
the quirks in your own mental wiring and then you can take
appropriate
precautions.' This part explores 28 reasons for misjudgments that
can be
explained by our psychological make-up. Many of the reasons are
rooted in
psychological tendencies and biases that often influence us
subconsciously. The
more emotional, confused, uncertain, insecure, excited, distracted,
tired or
stressed we are, the easier we make mistakes. Geniuses aren't
excluded.
Below is a list of 28 reasons for misjudgments and mistakes. It can
be used as
a checklist to explain or predict behavior or as a pilot's
checklist to avoid fooling
our
selves.
1. Bias from mere association - automatically connecting a stimulus
with pain
or pleasure; including liking or disliking something associated
with
something bad or good. Includes seeing situations as identical
because they
seem similar. Also bias from Persian Messenger Syndrome - not
wanting to
be the carrier of bad news.
2. Underestimating the power of rewards and punishment - people
repeat
actions that result in rewards and avoid actions that they are
punished for.
3. Underestimating bias from own self-interest and
incentives.
4. Self-serving bias - overly positive view of our abilities and
future. Includes
over-optimism.
5. Self-deception and denial- distortion of reality to reduce pain
or increase
pleasure. Includes wishful thinking.
6. Bias from consistency tendency - being consistent with our
prior
commitments and ideas even when acting against our best interest or
in the
face of disconfirming evidence. Includes confirmation bias -
looking for
evidence that confirms our actions and beliefs and ignoring or
distorting
disconfirming evidence.
7. Bias from deprival syndrome - strongly reacting (including
desiring and
valuing more) when something we like and have (or almost have) is
(or
threatens to be) taken away or 'lost.' Includes desiring and
valuing more
what we can't have or what is (or threatens to be) less
available.
8. Status quo bias and do-nothing syndrome - keeping things the way
they are.
Includes minimizing effort and a preference for default
options.
9. Impatience - valuing the present more highly than the
future.
10. Bias from envy and jealousy.
11. Distortion by contrast comparison - judging and perceiving the
absolute
magnitude of something not by itself but based only on its
difference to
something else presented closely in time or space or to some
earlier
adaptation level. Also underestimating the consequences over time
of
gradual changes.
12. Bias from anchoring - over-weighing certain initial information
as a
reference point for future decisions.
13. Over-influence by vivid or the most recent information.
14. Omission and abstract blindness - only seeing stimuli we
encounter or that
grabs our attention, and neglecting important missing information
or the
abstract. Includes inattentional blindness.
15. Bias from reciprocation tendency - repaying in kind what others
have done
for or to us like favors, concessions, information and
attitudes.
16. Bias from over-influence by liking tendency - believing,
trusting and
agreeing with people we know and like. Includes bias from
over-desire for
liking and social acceptance and for avoiding social disapproval.
Also bias
from disliking - our tendency to avoid and disagree with people we
don't
like.
17. Bias from over-influence by social proof - imitating the
behavior of many
others or similar others. Includes crowd folly.
18. Bias from over-influence by authority - trusting and obeying a
perceived
authority or expert.
19. Sensemaking - Constructing explanations that fit an outcome.
Includes
being too quick in drawing conclusions. Also thinking events that
have
happened were more predictable than they were.
20. Reason-respecting - complying with requests merely because
we've been
given a reason. Includes underestimating the power in giving people
reasons.
21. Believing first and doubting later - believing what is not
true, especially
when distracted.
22. Memory limitations - remembering selectively and wrong.
Includes
influence by suggestions.
23. Do-something syndrome - acting without a sensible reason.
24. Mental confusion from say-something syndrome - feeling a need
to say
something when we have nothing to say.
25. Emotional arousal- making hasty judgments under the influence
of intense
emotions. Includes exaggerating the emotional impact of future
events.
26. Mental confusion from stress.
27. Mental confusion from physical or psychological pain, the
influence of
chemicals or diseases.
28. Bias from over-influence by the combined effect of many
psychological
tendencies operating together.
