2023年6月22日澳大利亚ALLEGROMEAT公司牛羊供需的复盘
2023-06-25 17:48阅读：
22 June 2023 2023年6月22日 澳大利亚ALLEGRO MEAT公司的复盘
Again, the Chinese market is the main influence of the global meat
market. The Chinese economy is in deep trouble after being
decimated by the self inflicted COVID restrictions. Everyone,
including the Chinese, expected the economy to simply “Bounce Back”
after these restrictions were lifted. Is has not. The reason being
that many people could not work during this time and used up a lot
of savings, some unemployment and other economic problems now
exist. The Chinese consumer is not buying like they used to. As a
result, there is too much meat in the market. Import figures of
beef , particularly from South America show a large gap between the
imported volume and real demand. It will take some time for that
market to digest stocks it has in store , all at higher
prices than todays market.
再一次，中国市场对全球肉类市场产生了主要影响。中国经济在经历了毁灭性的新冠自我施压控制之后陷入了很深的困境中。每一人，包括中国人，都期待限制被放开后经济可以报复性反弹，然而并没有。
原因是很多人在此期间没有工作并用光了积蓄， 导致一些非雇佣和其他经
济问题开始存在了。中国的消费者不能像过去那样消费了，
导致的结果是，市场上有太多肉的库存。牛肉进口数据，特别是南美的牛肉进口数据显示，进口量和需求之间有很大的差距。
市场需要时间来消化库存，这些库存商品的价格高于今天的市场价。
Low Chinese demand means that the meat that usually goes there
needs to find another home. This is the knock on effect that China
has. Other Asian markets are also very slow and the increase in
supply is causing prices to drop. The Middle East is in hot
season and low consumption. That market cant take the
volumes available until possibly into the second half of this
year.
中国市场的低需求意味着之前运往中国的肉需要另寻出路。
这就是中国市场的连锁反应，其他亚洲市场也非常慢，供应增加导致了价格下跌。中东国家处于低需求的热季。市场直到下半年才有可能接受这些数量。
On the supply side, Australian slaughter has lifted . There are now
more cattle and sheep coming forward to be processed as the climate
changes from wet to dry. The winter here usually sees a slow down
in the slaughter but not this year. High slaughter levels may
continue for the next 1-2 years after very low levels for the last
4-5 years. Increased supply means that the prices have had to
adjust to the lower demand environment. We have seen beef cuts,
mutton and lamb prices fall to levels not seen for some years.
Processing capacity is an issue, combined with labour supply
problems. Consequently, at times, there are more animals to be
slaughtered than can be processed which contributes to the price
falls. Beef prices have further to fall however mutton and lamb
have been at reasonably low levels for months now. The prices we
are seeing now are here to stay for a while to come. On the up
side, the lower prices do have the effect of stimulating more
demand with countries like Indonesia taking higher volumes of Beef
at more reasonable prices. The same may happen in the Middle East
on mutton and lamb when the high season starts.
在供应端，澳大利亚的屠宰已经取消。
随着气候从湿到干的变化，现在有更多的牛羊前来加工。这里的冬天通常是屠宰活动放缓的季节但今年却不是这样。在过去4—5年的极低水平之后，高屠宰水平可能会在未来1—2年内持续。供应增加意味着价格不得不调整以适应较低的需求环境。我们看到牛肉、羊肉和羔羊肉的价格跌至多年未见的水平。加工能力是一个问题，再加上劳动力供应问题。因此，有时候，有更多的动物被屠宰比可以处理，这有助于价格下跌。牛肉价格还有进一步下跌的空间然而，羊肉和羔羊肉的价格几个月来一直处于合理的低水平。我们现在看到的价格在这里停留了一段时间来。从好的方面来看，较低的价格确实刺激了更多的需求，像印度尼西亚这样的国家以更合理的价格购买了更多的牛肉。同样的情况可能会发生在中东的羊肉和羔羊的旺季开始时
Europe
Some of the larger sheep meat processing plants have closed. This
is a consequence of oversupply from places like Australia
now feeding into their major markets at lower prices that they are
able to offer. The rise of China had developed good markets for
Europe suppliers in the Middle East due to a shortage of product
from places like Australia, the same with South American suppliers.
However with the lows of China comes the shift in focus of
Australian sheep meat sellers which have larger volumes and are
still preferred by the consumer. European Farmers are resisting the
lower prices which makes processing mutton uncommercial in those
countries.
些较大的羊肉加工厂已经关闭。这是供应过剩的结果，从像澳大利亚这样的地方现在饲料以较低的价格进入他们的主要市场，他们能够提供。中国的崛起为欧洲供应商在中东开发了良好的市场，因为来自澳大利亚等地的产品短缺，南美供应商也是如此。然而，随着中国市场的低迷，澳大利亚绵羊肉销售商的重点发生了转移，他们的销售量更大，仍然受到消费者的青睐。欧洲农民正在抵制羊肉的低价，这使得羊肉加工在这些国家变得非商业化。
South America
Beef prices have dropped, however not collapsed. What tends to
happen is that the South American beef producers reduce production
very quickly. Also the South American domestic market is the main
consumer of South American beef, which means that plants only
reduce production by 30% to cut out their export volume. Livestock
prices in Brazil have come down. Paraguay has now started adjusting
prices downwards to meet production volumes after a spike in their
prices in April/May. I expect South American beef production to
fall significantly in the coming months. This will have a
stabilizing effect on prices.
牛肉价格有所下降，但没有崩溃。可能发生的情况是，南美牛肉生产商非常迅速地减少产量。此外，南美国内市场是南美牛肉的主要消费者，这意味着工厂只有减少30%的产量才能减少出口量。巴西的牲畜价格已经下降。在4月/5月价格飙升之后，巴拉圭现在已经开始下调价格，以满足生产量。我预计未来几个月南美牛肉产量将大幅下降。这将对价格起到稳定作用。
South American Mutton and Lamb has also had to adjust. Uruguay is
usually very focussed on China, so the lack of demand sees them
turning to the Middle East where the product is being well
received. Argentina prices are competitive and need to be in the
current environment. Quality is also improving. Some good supply
from there at competitive prices can be found. It is currently the
low season for slaughter in these countries, which is
fortunate.
南美羊肉公司也不得不做出调整。乌拉圭通常非常专注于中国，所以需求的缺乏使他们转向中东，那里的产品很受欢迎。阿根廷价格具有竞争力，需要在当前的环境。质量也在提高。一些良好的供应，从那里有竞争力的价格可以找到。目前是这些国家屠宰的淡季，这是值得庆幸的。
USA
The USA Grinding Beef prices remain relatively strong compared to
anywhere else in the world. Mutton and lamb to the USA is
significantly weaker than last year. The Goat market remains weak.
Goat meat from Australia has dropped significantly, now making them
more accessible to the traditional markets.
美国
与世界其他地区相比，美国牛肉价格保持相对强劲。羊肉和羔羊对美国是显着弱于去年。山羊市场仍然疲软。来自澳大利亚的山羊肉大幅下降，现在更容易进入传统市场。
Summary:
Covid - Sent the market into a spin upwards.
Post Covid, - June – December 2022 we saw a MAJOR CORRECTION
in prices with big falls.
Post China Lockdown we saw China back in the market. All thought
this was the start of the recovery.
After the “Dead Cat Bounce” of January – May 2023, we are
now in a continued correction. The global supply and demand
equation has shifted to oversupply.
China will again hold the key to this equation. When we start to
see an increase in buying interest from China will be the point at
which we can start to predict and change in direction. Until then
price will adjust accordingly.
摘要：
Covid——让市场一路上涨。
Post Covid，2022年6月至12月我们看到了一个重大的修正，价格大幅下跌。
中国封锁后我们看到中国又回到了市场上。所有人都认为这是经济复苏的开始。
在经历了2023年1月—5月的“死猫反弹”之后，我们现在处于持续的调整之中。全球供需平衡已转向供过于求。
中国将再次掌握这一等式的关键。当我们开始看到来自中国的购买兴趣增加时，我们就可以开始预测和改变方向。在此之前，价格将作相应调整。
