“2014年将决定本世纪的走向”
2010-06-18 06:37阅读：
参考预言| From Telegraph.co.uk
剑桥大学学者表示，一些戏剧性的事件将决定本世纪的走向，而这，将在2014年发生。
Prof Nicholas Boyle claims that events of the fateful
year will decide whether the world enjoys peace and prosperity over
the coming decades or suffers war and poverty.
He believes financial turmoil could be the trigger for the crisis,
and that the reactions of American leaders will be crucial to its
outcome. He also thinks new global organisations will be key to
securing stability rather than nation-states.
Prof Boyle argues that 2014 will be important because previous five
centuries have also hinged on events that took place in the middle
of their second decade.
In 1517 Martin Luther nailed his theses to the door of Wittenburg
church, sparking the Reformation and the rise of
Protestantism.
A century later 1618 marked the start of the 30 Years War and
decades of religious conflict in Western Euro
pe, which ended with the establishment of the Hanoverians in
1715.
The enlightened Congress of Vienna took place in 1815 following the
defeat of Napoleon, heralding a century of relative stability
across Europe.
But in 1914 the First World War broke out, a catastrophic conflict
that would claim millions of lives and set the tone for
international discord throughout the 21st century.
Prof Boyle, whose book 2014 - How to survive the next world crisis
is published on Thursday, said: “The character of a century becomes
very apparent in that second decade, so why should ours be any
different?
“Partly the timing has to do with the way we divide our
understanding of human life and human history.
“If a century is going to have a character it is going to become
apparent by the time it is approaching 20 years old, the same is
true of human beings.
“Another factor is the sequence of generations. By about two
decades in the generation that was really dominant in the last
phase of the previous century has had its day.
“The future is beginning to be defined by their children who will
only have lived in or have memories of the new century.'
Professor Boyle predicted recent economic collapse could herald the
start of a wider breakdown in international relations.
The USA will become the key player in a series of make-or-break
decisions and either condemn us to a century of violence and
poverty, or usher in a new age of global co-operation.
But he cautioned the peaceful alternative is only possible if the
world realises the age of individual nation states is over and an
effective system of global governance is introduced.
Flashpoints of world politics such as climate change and the rise
of China and India, as well as the global credit crisis, will need
international co-operation to be resolved.
Professor Boyle said: “2007 started off colossal economic change
which has still got a long way to go.
“Big economic changes lead to big political changes and we have not
seen them yet.
“My thesis is that we have got another crisis to come, and you can
already see that in the questions being raised over the debts of
nations rather than private credit debts.
“One thing that has not changed is the colossus that is the
American military which means the USA has to be a key player in any
major political shift.
“We are going to see disparity in America's perception of its
declining economic significance and continuing military and
political absolute power.
'Everything, in the end, may depend on whether America can react
more imaginatively to that decline than Britain was able to do in
the years before 1914.
'It is a profoundly hopeful sign that we begin the 21st century
with very many more international and intergovernmental
organisations than we had at the start of the 20th.
Professor Boyle stressed it is a global network of global
organisations and the only partly-acknowledged 'Empire' of America
that will determine many aspects of our lives in the 21st
century.
He added: 'The only conceivably peaceful route to that goal is
through a continuation of the pax Americana.
'But both the world's understanding of America, and America's
understanding of itself, will have to change fundamentally for that
goal to be achieved.'
国际在线|
剑桥大学教授尼克拉斯·鲍伊预言：“2014年将是全球发展关键的一年，这一年将有一件惊天动地的大事发生，将主宰本世纪的未来走向，世界或将陷入危机，其状况或许不比电影《2012》乐观。”
鲍伊的著作《2014：下一个世界末日》已于16日出版，他在新作中指出，近几年的金融风暴可视为这场世界危机的开端，美国总统处理金融问题的方式，将是危机是否可以化解的关键。他同时表示，美国的经济影响力在逐渐减弱，但其军事实力仍无可匹敌，国际组织将扮演稳定全球局势的另一重要角色。而2014年将发生的大事包括战争、宗教冲突或者归于和平仍不得而知。
鲍伊指出，回顾过去的500年，每个世纪都在第2个10年中发生改变历史进程的大事。1517年，马丁·路德在威登堡教堂大门前钉上他所写的《九十五条论纲》，之后点燃宗教改革之火，造就了新教；1618年，波西米亚反对哈布斯堡王朝起义，欧洲陷入“30年战争”的利益争夺大混战中；1715年，汉诺威王朝兴起；1815年，欧洲反法同盟打败拿破仑后举行“维也纳会议”，重新划分欧洲势力范围图，维持了近一个世纪的和平；1914年则爆发了第一次世界大战。因此，鲍伊在分析过去5个世纪的历史现象后得出“每世纪的第2个10年是整个世纪发展关键”的论点。
因此他的结论是，金融风暴只是开端，真正的大事尚未发生，届时世界将走向和平或者陷入混乱，命运掌握在美国之手，国际组织所发挥的全球性力量，将是美国之外的另一个关键力量。但无论美国还是全世界，警惕这一论点是有必要的。
