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在中国阴影之下的东南亚。

2021-01-15 07:32阅读:

张化桥

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听书: In the Dragon's Shadow: Southeast Asia in the Chinese Century.
作者:Sebastian Strangio.
我听了这个美国记者谈他的新书的长达一个多小时的音频节目。他问,中国在东南亚有那么多侨胞、那么多投资,又是邻国,有深厚的贸易关系,为什么中国在这些国家不受欢迎?
80年代以前,中国和美国一样,在外交上以意识形态开路。但是美国是通过意识形态做生意。而中国意识形态的输出导致了惨痛的失败,华侨在当地饱受折磨。这不光是东南亚,也包括印度等地。
作者又问,新加坡以华人为主。可是新加坡为什么十分抗拒中国?台湾全是华人。在印尼,特别是马来西亚,华侨的比例很高。为什么它们跟中国的关系是现在这个样子?
因为美国在世界的每一个角落都是霸主,所以谈中国与东南亚的关系,要提到美国。美国的任务是挑战中国,制衡中国,让中国的努力事倍功半。但是美国政客不管是到东南亚,还是到非洲或者拉丁美洲,都是同一套公式,同一个意识形态(兜售美国民主),人们不免厌倦了。
中国在80年代以后改变了外交策略,淡化了意识形态,甚至完全放弃了意识形态,只做生意和建设自己的战略利益。这给了中国很大的灵活性。美国的意识形态在东南亚或者其他很多地方并不总是得到认可。
美国政客和外交官有一个巨大的优势:他们非常富有经验,夸夸其谈,善于利用学术论坛、研讨会、政治活动和媒体放大自己的影响。而中国的官员在这方面显得相当的笨拙。美国官员对世界各地的情况的了解也比中国官员更加透彻。
因为美国试图巩固和延续自己在每个角落的霸主地位,所以美国在东南亚也一直逼着这些国家站队:要么是美国的盟友,要么是中国的盟友。当然,绝大多数国家是害怕美国的。澳大利亚就是站在美国这边甚至剑走偏锋的;为了向美国表白忠诚,它宁可得罪中国,宁可丢掉短期商业利益。
但是澳大利亚的大宗商品有全球性的价格,而中国买澳大利亚的大宗商品并不是对澳大利亚的恩惠。中国不买澳大利亚的,也必须买别人的。澳大利亚是很多大宗商品的主要供应商,它不卖给中国,可以卖给国际市场上的别人。这一点越来越多的澳大利亚官员已经想通了。而且。考虑到外交上、军事上和政治上的原因,澳大利亚选择了站在美国那边。
人民币中长期会不会挑战美元
在东南亚的霸主地位?作者认为不可能,中国人本身也害怕人民币国际化。而且,美元的地位根深蒂固。中国非常重视东南亚的关系,原因之一是在北面和西北面,中国遇到俄罗斯的威胁。在西南面中国遇到印度的威胁。这两个国家都有核武器。在东北面,韩国和日本不仅经济上强大,而且都是美国的军事盟友。美国在日本、韩国、菲律宾都有大量的驻军。美国与其它东南亚国家也有非常深厚的政治、军事和经济关系。
In the Dragon's Shadow: Southeast Asia in the Chinese Century.
作者:Sebastian Strangio.
Why COVID-19 has hurt China’s standing in Southeast Asia – Sebastian Strangio.
China’s dominance in Southeast Asia has been hit by its response to the COVID-19 pandemic, according to author Sebastian Strangio.
The Southeast Asia editor of The Diplomat told an October 12 FCC webinar that the onslaught of the coronavirus had furthered a trend that was already underway in the region which was that the “image of both the United States and China are suffering in Southeast Asia”.
This trend was borne out before the pandemic in the surveys conducted by the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore that showed amongst elites and opinion leaders in the 10 nations of ASEAN “a pretty significant souring on both of these powers for different reasons”, Strangio said.
“What we see is a lot of Southeast Asia nations concerned about China’s initial response to the pandemic.. allowing it to get out in the first place. Concerns about the region’s over-reliance on China in terms of when the pandemic arose there – the first cases outside China arose in Thailand I think … Also the fact that China took the opportunity to assert its maritime sovereign claims in the South China Sea. I think in the affected nations that was seen with a great deal of negativity,” he added.
However, Strangio said he believed the pandemic would not ameliorate China’s main advantage in the region – its geographic proximity which, he said, is a “structural underpinning of Southeast Asian relations with China”. As COVID-19 and its economic after-effects continue to ravage the region, he added, “China is looking more and more like an unavoidable economic partner”.
Strangio, author of In the Dragon’s Shadow: Southeast Asia in the Chinese Century, said China is currently reaffirming its commitment to Southeast Asia, assuring ASEAN partners that it will help the region recover from the virus physically (via its signing of vaccine access agreements), economically, and politically.
China, he said, has a basic security dilemma in that it has “formidable rivals” on every side: nuclear powers India and Russia, and “a string of U.S. treaty allies – Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, and Taiwan”. Southeast Asia is the one region in China’s neighbourhood that does not have an incumbent great power constricting the power of Chinese influence, Strangio said. This made it a region “relatively amenable to the extension of Chinese influence”. The Chinese economy relies heavily on the vital sea lanes of the South China Sea and wants to protect them, he said.
“China views itself as a dominant power in the region once again, it is reclaiming a mantle that it lost 150 years ago with the rise of western empires and I think what we can glean from its behaviour occasionally from the comments of its officials is that China wants the region to be deferential, it wants the region to acknowledge China’s size and prominence through deference to Chinese aims.”
On China’s relationship with the United States, Strangio said a Biden presidency would not bring any significant shift in America’s policy towards China, adding: “I think a corner has been turned that will not be reversed.”

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