三月份巴菲特关于中国股市的言论（似乎没被报道过）
2008-06-24 12:53阅读：
A Discussion of Mr. Warren Buffett with Dr. George Athanassakos and
Ivey MBA and HBA students. Question: What are your thoughts about
the Chinese Stock market? How can you make money without investing
a lot of money? Is it hard to raise money?
The Chinese stock market? I don’t know what markets are going to
do. When I was over in China they were bombarding me with questions
about the market and of course you have these A shares, including
Petro China, which was going public in China. Petro China and
others were trading at twice the price within China (at that time
Chinese people were not permitted to buy shares in Hong Kong or in
the United States) than outside China. This was really
extraordinary. （大陆人不能买便宜的同公司海外上市股票是件很变态的事情）If you knew
these restrictions were going to break down it would have been
great to short the stocks in China and buy them elsewhere around
the world. But the Chinese stock market has 1.2 billion people
waking up to the stock markets and having an
investing or gambling urge. The stock market was becoming wildly
popular as we know in China. Petro China at one time, based on the
Chinese prices, was the most valuable company in the world, and was
selling for over 1 trillion dollars, whereas Exxon was only worth
500 billion. This made Petro China twice as valuable as the largest
company in the world. I have no idea why and where that many people
were relatively new to the market and were very excited about
stocks. You do know in the end you have to buy things on a basis of
when you get a value for what you pay. This seemed to lose
relevance in a market like China. They had a situation like that in
Kuwait 20 years ago. When a whole society, and a rich society,
(certainly far richer than 15 years ago), a huge market opened up
for them.（ I have no idea whether the people get friendlier or
crazier. That is not my game. My game is simply to buy something
worth a dollar for 50 cents. Then if they go crazy in the right
direction it helps me and if they go crazy in the other direction I
just buy more. My job is to take advantage of craziness. And that
goes back to Ben Graham’s Intelligent Investor chapter 8. If you
are going to invest based on value with a partner (lets say Mr.
Market) - let’s say you each own half of a McDonalds stand. Every
day he quotes a price at which he either wants to buy me out or
sell me his interest. If he hears a bad rumour he low-balls it, so
I buy. Other days he is all excited about some Burger King burning
down and seeing some line ups and decides to give a high offer, so
I sell. If I’m going to have a partner like that what kind of
partner do I want? I want a psycho. The stupider he gets the better
I am going to do. I don’t want some cool, calm rational partner. I
want somebody with huge ups and downs - a manic depressive.
Basically that’s what you get in the stock market some times. As
long as you realize he is there to serve you, and not to instruct
you, you can make a lot of money. You can’t listen to Mr. Market
and think he must be right. Only listen to what he says in the
context of: when this guy gets way out of line I am going to wack
him. And basically that’s what you get in the stock market. In
China you can’t tell how far the markets will go to extremes.
（在中国市场你不知道啥时候会发生什么极端的事情，大涨或者大跌）You can’t tell that, I
have no idea where the markets are going to go tomorrow or the next
day or the next month or the next year. I do know that in the end
stocks tend to sell for what they are worth. At least in the range
of what they are worth. They go all over the place in between - but
tend to true value in the end.
（在中国这个市场股票没法给他确定一个合理的价值区间，我没法判断它明天，后天，下个月或者明年会怎么走）
总结一下：
1.中国股票市场是个畸形的市场，同样的东西在不同的地方能卖差距几倍的价钱。
2.中国的投资者和中国的市场一样，都是才富起来忽然有很多前不知道干嘛的主，人们没法判断这帮人会把股市拉的多高，或者砸的多底。
3.中国股市丫就没一个大家都能认可的估值标准，什么才是合理？没法判断，你让我杂投？
