如何看待Alphago战胜围棋冠军？听奥赛罗冠军BEN如是说
2016-03-18 15:42阅读：
注：Ben Seely -黑白棋/奥赛罗前世界冠军，美国冠军。深度计算和一分钟闪棋（blitz
game）皆世界一流水平。此外思维缜密，表达出众，文风冗长但不啰嗦。内容细腻，让人思考。
作者的其他文章：《黑白棋依然是我心之故乡》👇
http://blog.sina.cn/dpool/blog/s/blog_6993d61a0102v6ix.html?vt=4
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Wowwwwwww, a computer program
beat a top Go (Baduk)
player in a game for the
first time in history. (See
my last post about this
match).
哇~~~~~~~~~ 一个计算机程序历史性地击败了顶尖围棋高手。
Since I've won world
championships in a game
(Othello) in which the AI
ha
s been better than the best
humans for 20 years, I
figured I would talk about
what it's like to regularly
interact with strong AI. Not
only will Go players be
finding out what this is
like, eventually all of us
will learn what it's like
to interact with software which
is smarter than us.
由于本人曾在一个棋类（奥赛罗）中获得过世界冠军，而这个棋类的AI已经战胜人类20年之久，所以我想我有资格在这里讨论一下，超强AI会带给人们的影响。不仅仅是围棋棋手，我们所有人都会慢慢发现这些比人类还聪明的AI正在慢慢改变我们的生活。
What AlphaGo has done is
an extremely significant achievement
in artificial intelligence. And
I bet this suggests a lot
of fast progress in AI in
many applications, in the near
future. I frankly think this
is a far more important
milestone than Deep Blue vs.
Kasparov
AlphaGo的胜利是人工智能界一个极为瞩目的成就。而且我敢打赌在不久的将来，这会大大推进各领域AI的应用。我深信，它是比深蓝战胜卡斯托洛夫更重要的里程碑。
Or, to put it in
scary-ese, 'the age of man
is coming to an
end'.
或许我们可以大胆预言“人类的时代即将结束”。
Or maybe it's just beginning
. 或者说才刚刚开始。
AlphaGo's abilities to make good
decisions when faced with a
huge number of possible options
is extremely promising for
applications in so many 'human'
areas, and hard problems to
solve.
AlphaGo在大量可能选项面前拥有出色的选择能力，这很好地证明了其可以被用于诸多“人类”领域，并解决各种难题。
AlphaGo also seems to have
something very akin to
'intuition', and this also seems
exciting.
而且AlphaGo看起来还有某些类似“直觉”的东西，这听起来也很让人兴奋。
I had actually figured that
the human (Lee Sedol) would
lose, even though most people
expected Sedol to win every
game, because the rate of
progress AlphaGo had made
suggested huge potential in its
learning curve.
尽管此前大部分人类觉得李世石会全胜，我还是认为人类（李世石）会输，因为AlphaGo的进步速度显示了它有巨大的学习潜能。
Also, the Go players were
not humble enough. Since Go
is a complicated game, they
should have known that the
theoretical ceiling for perfect-ish
play is far higher than
what humans have so far
achieved. It's not like top
humans playing each other get
a draw in every game, so
obviously there was potential to
play far better. The greater
this potential, the easier it
is to make rapid improvements
in the AI.
同时，围棋棋手们也不够虚心。围棋是一个如此复杂的棋类，他们应该知道理论上的完美下法会远远超过现有人类棋手可以达到的水平。这不应该是像现在高手们总是下成（接近）平局一样，所以显然这里的潜力要大得多。潜力越大，AI就越容易快速突破。
Also, when a huge institution
like Google throws a ton
of resources at a problem,
they can often achieve
remarkable things in a short
period of time. Plus maybe
Google anticipated they would
win, and that dictated their
timing in setting the match.
It's better PR to win
than to lose.
而且，当一个大型机构如谷歌，投入庞大的资源去研究一个问题时，他们通常可以在短时间内取得显著成绩。也许谷歌预料到他们会赢，并命令程序调整时间准备应战。在公关上，赢要比输好。
I'm not totally sure this
was the result I was
rooting for, though. It's always
been fun to believe that
what we humans can do is
somehow special, and this is
being steadily disproven over
and over and over. It
won't be long before literally
nothing humans do is uniquely
special. Although we will be
able to claim the special
distinction of being the first
species on Earth to ever
create from scratch something
smarter than us.
Othello programs have been better
than humans for 20 years,
and the top Chess programs
have been better than humans
for around 12-15 years, so
I feel I can make some
predictions from that experience,
about what Go players, and
all humans, are going to
be experiencing in the future
as AI gets stronger and
stronger.
奥赛罗程序已经战胜人类20年，所以我觉得我可以在这里做一些预言，在AI越来越强大的将来，围棋棋手以及其他所有人即将要面对的。
1. AI gets more
aggressive as it gets smarter.
By 'aggressive' I mean it
pushes the envelope, comfortable
with all kinds of
extremes.
随着AI越来越聪明，它将会更大胆（注：也可叫更具“侵略性”）。这里的“大胆”指的是不断突破自身极限，对所有极致事物泰然处之。
I figured AlphaGo would become
more aggressive than it was
before, and I was right.
Top AI, when it is
superior to humans, is typically
far more aggressive than the
humans are. The only reason
humans ever have to be
cautious is if we can't
figure out whether or not
the risk will be fatal.
The nature of greater
intelligence, though, is the
ability to figure out when
taking a risk *will* pay
off.
我曾经猜想AlphaGo会比从前更大胆，而我是对的。超级AI，一旦凌驾于人类，会远远比人类更大胆。人们谨慎的唯一原因是，我们不确定这样做的风险是否会致命。大自然或更强大的智慧体才能知道，冒险何时会被报以惩罚。
Top AI will steadily seem
more and more precisely
aggressive, doing things we are
too scared to even consider,
but the AI will figure
out that it works
out.
超级AI会越来越大胆，做我们想都不敢想的事，但AI知道这完全行得通。
2. AI also doesn't
have fear.
AI不会有恐惧
We humans only have one
life, so we have a
perpetual and extreme bias
towards fear and caution. We
humans are far too cautious
in 99.99% of situations. But
we have to be cautious
and not take all those
opportunities we could be
taking, because on every
10,000th opportunity, it would
kill us if we tried to
take it.
人类只有一次生命，因此我们对恐惧和谨慎一直抱有极度的偏见。我们人类在99.99%的情况下都太过谨慎。但是我们又不得不谨慎，因为如果不那样做，即使有万分之一的几率都会让我们赔上小命。（“不怕一万，就怕万一”就是这个道理）
That is the whole basis
for fear, e.g. 'Better safe
than sorry'. And if you
really dig deep down into
it, almost everything we do
and rationalize as being due
to other motivations, is really
at its root motivated by
fear. We just don't like
being reminded all the time
of just how much we are
ruled by fear and the
limits of our intelligence, so
we come up with other
explanations for what we do-
our rationalizations.
这就是恐惧的根本原因，比如人们常说：“宁求稳妥，不要犯错”。
我们只是不想被提起，自己是如何被恐惧和智力极限所支配，所以我们会找其他借口来解释自己的行为。
AI, in the abstract world
in which it lives, cannot
die. This is actually the
biggest underlying reason for
why it can learn so
quickly; it has no fear,
and no ego.
AI,在抽象世界里是永生的。这就是它能学习如此之快的最大原因；他没有恐惧，没有自我。
3. We are going to
be ritually humiliated, over and
over and over again, with
one experience after another of
learning just how stupid all
of us humans are.
我们将会一次又一次，不断不断地被教做人（被羞辱），来认识到所有我们这些人类有多愚蠢。
(Although at least the benefit
to this humiliation will be
that AI will be able to
do things for us, and
teach us things, which we
never could have done ourselves.
It's worth it, even if
our egos have to take a
hit!)
（但至少这些羞辱有一个好处，那就是AI可以为我们服务，教会我们一些事情，这都是我们靠自身无法实现的。所以即使自信心受到了点打击也是值得的）
Obviously it's a matter of
perspective; we don't have to
feel bad about these humbling
experiences. As some have
pointed out, we aren't as
fast as a car, so why
feel humbled by strong
AI?
显然，这取决于你从什么角度来看问题，我们其实不应该为此感到羞愧。这就好比你也跑不过一辆汽车，那又何必为了输给超强AI而感到被羞辱呢？
But we humans are used to
seeing ourselves as the smartest
things around. There have always
been animals faster and stronger
and bigger than us, but
there has been nothing *smarter*
than us. This is definitely
going to adjust our perspectives
about our own level of
intelligence.
但我们人类往往视自己是世界上最聪明的。其他动物可以比我们更快更大更强，但没有比我们更“聪明”的动物。这一点必然会影响到我们对人类智力等级的评估。
This was why I figured
humans were probably overestimating
Lee Sedol's chances of beating
Alpha Go. As an Othello
player, I'm used to losing
to AI. Go players have
not had thousands of experiences
in seeing that AI can be
smarter than our puny human
brains. Top Go players aren't
that much more cognitively
talented than top Chess or
Othello players, it just took
longer to figure out how
to adapt AI to the game
of Go.
这就是为什么我此前觉得人们很可能高估了李世石此次的胜算。作为一个奥赛罗棋手，我已经习惯了输给AI。而围棋棋手们大概还没有看到过这种AI战胜人类渺小大脑成千上万次的场景。顶尖的围棋棋手并不会比顶尖国际象棋或奥赛罗棋手聪明多少。只是找出如何让AI适应围棋需要花更长的时间而已。
Most humans are arrogant about
what humans can do. We're
so used to being the
best, we don't fully realize
how frail and stupid we
really are.
大部分人类都对自己的能力沾沾自喜。我们习惯以最强者自居，却对自己的脆弱和愚蠢视若无睹。
(As a side note, try to
think about everything you know,
which you did not learn
from other human being, or
which wasn't a simple step
beyond what you had learned
from other human beings. In
the absence of all the
knowledge other humans possess-
which is our real wellspring
of genius- we are phenomenally
ignorant.
（题外话，想想我们所知道的一切，有哪样不是从其他人或者通过他人的帮助习得的。如果没有前人所有的知识储备，我们真正的天赋才能从何而来-我们生而无知。
Without the knowledge of other
humans, we could not be
smarter than the typical feral
human raised by wild animals-
which is incredibly stupid. I
try to remember this every
time I'm trying to learn
something new, that my natural
intelligence isn't any greater
than that of a feral
human, so I shouldn't expect
myself to start out beyond
the feral ignorant state.)
如果没有他人的知识，我们并不会比那些生活在野外的原始人类更智慧。每当我试着学习新事物时我总是提醒自己，我的天生才能不会高于原始人类，所以我不能指望自己从一开始摆脱这种原始的无知状态。）
Incidentally, I’ve wondered for a
while whether part of why
a lot of Othello players
seem so humble despite being
so intelligent and accomplished
is because they have such
frequent experiences in having
AI point out how stupid
they can be. Humiliation can
be...
Humbling.
我又想到了为什么许多奥赛罗棋手可以如此谦逊，尽管他们已经这样聪明和有学识。正是因为他们无数次地被AI指出自己的愚钝之处。羞辱有时使人谦逊。
So hey, if humanity becomes
less often obnoxiously arrogant
due to the humbling experiences
of interacting with strong AI,
that could be nice!
所以嘛，如果通过跟AI的交手可以让人类变得不那么狂妄自大，这也许是件好事！
(Side note- it can sometimes
be easier to learn from
software than from other people,
because with software we don't
have the ego pain of
acknowledging to other people
that we were wrong. We
just learn the lesson and
move on.)
（题外话-有时候通过软件学习比跟人学习要简单。面对软件，我们不会因为自己错了而伤自尊。我们只是学习并进步着。）
4. We are going to
learn that there are
exponentially more things that
are wonderful and really do
work, than we ever thought
possible.
我们即将看到更多美好的事物，做更多之前认为是不可能的事。
Prior to strong Othello AI,
humans played a very narrow
range of openings in their
games. These openings were
decent enough. But once strong
AI came along, all of a
sudden we learned that there
were *far* more playable
openings, than we had thought
there were. They had just
seemed implausible and scary-bad,
up until the AI proved
that they were playable.
在超强奥赛罗AI发明之前，人们使用的开局很有限。这些开局足够规矩。而超强AI的到来让我们突然意识到还有比这多得多的可玩开局。他们曾经被认为是难以置信的可怕的坏棋，直到AI证明了他们是可行的。（本宝宝顿时就想到吴清源第一手拍天元了）
In Chess this was less
extreme since so many humans
had played Chess in recent
centuries. But it's still
startling to realize that a
modern Chess program could
probably figure out in a
month everything the humans had
figured out over the course
of centuries.
由于几个世纪以来，下国际象棋的人非常多（欧美国家吧~），所以国际象棋的例子没有那么极端。但人们还是意识到，一个现代的国象软件可以在一个月内解决人们几个世纪都解决不了的难题。
Like, you know all those
comparisons where they show that
an entire huge library of
books can now be stored
as information on a single
flash drive? Before too long,
they might be making graphics
showing that all mathematical
knowledge humans figured out up
till 2016 was figured out
in an hour by some future
supercomputer. Etc.
就像你一定见过这种对比反差，整个图书馆的书籍内容现在都可以被装在一个小小的优盘里。在不久的将来，他们可能会用图表告诉你，所有迄今为其人们计算出的数学问题都会在一个小时之内被未来的超级计算机解出。
That is what AI is going
to eventually bring us in
our lives. We are going
to be *shocked* by all
the things that work, which
we had never considered, or
had dismissed too quickly. In
some sense, we are going
to be entering the 'Age
of the Counterintuitive'. We
have figured out most of
what our human intuition can
lead us to understanding, so
now nearly all the new
solutions are going to be
in the counterintuitive
areas.
这就是AI即将带给我们的。我们会被这些曾经从未想过或太快忽略的事情“震惊”到。从某种意义上来说，我们将要进入一个“反直觉时代”。我们已经弄明白了绝大多数可以通过直觉理解的事物，那么现在几乎所有的新答案都会在反直觉领域。
5. AI will make Go
players (and all humans) smarter
and better at everything we
do.
AI会让围棋棋手（还有所有人类）更聪明更完美。
Human Othello players have
improved significantly since strong
AI came along, and so
have top Chess players. We
can learn more, and faster,
than ever before. It will
not typically take 10 years
or whatever, to gain what
was formerly considered world-class
expertise in a given field.
It will typically take 1-2
years.
借助于强大的AI，人类奥赛罗棋手显著提高了棋力，国际象棋高手们也是。我们比以往任何时候都学得多，学得快。曾经被普遍认可的，达到专业领域所需的时长将会从10年时间缩短为1-2年。
We learn so much from the
best humans, but we can
learn even more from AI
once it surpasses the top
humans. Humanity will become
better, concurrent with AI
improving.
我们从伟大的前人身上学到了许多，而一旦AI超越了最强的人类，我们从中学到更多。随着AI的发展，人类会越来越进步。
And as some humans get
better, even the humans without
access to top AI will get
better, since so much of
human behavior is built on
cultural modeling. 'Monkey see,
monkey do.' All humans will
absorb better knowledge and
behaviors, quite naturally, just
like how children nowadays grow
up naturally being knowledgeable
and savvy in ways few of
our ancestors ever
managed.
然后因为某些人类已经进步了，另一些人就算不通过AI也会跟着进步。因为群体的行为是建立在文化模型上的。“有样学样”所有人类都会很自然地吸收更好的知识和行为习惯，就像孩子们每天自然地成长，变聪明并理解各种事物，这些都没有大人去控制过。
