伯南克的幻觉 Bernanke Hallucinating
2010-09-13 21:47阅读：
伯南克难道真的对美国经济在产生幻觉吗？在美国也有一些经济人士对美国经济前景持相当负面的看法。本文作者就是其一。尽管美联储的货币政策极为宽松，现阶段美国国内私有部门削减债务的惊人规模达到历史最大。结论是（1）伯南克已经无能为力了；（2）再次衰退；（3）更多的银行倒闭。顺便说一句，美联储的经济数据全面而且基本公开；中国就很不一样了。
Bernanke Hallucinating
by
Martin D. Weiss, Ph.D.
08-30-10
If
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke honestly believes what he said at Jackson
Hole on Friday — that he can save the economy by printing more
money and buying more bonds — he’s hallucinating.
Through the first quarter of
this year, he printed $1.5 trillion of paper money and promptly
bought $1.5 trillion in mortgage bonds, government agency bonds,
and Treasury bonds.
But the entire effort was a
dismal failure; the U.S. economy is still sinking and most large
American banks are still weak.
The underlying reason: While the
government has been borrowing massively, nearly everyone else has
embarked on unprecedented debt LIQUIDATIONS.
In other words …
While Washington is gorging
itself on new debts, nearly every other sector is undergoing
massive liposuctions.
How do we know? Because that’s
what the Federal Reserve itself is reporting —
unambiguously and conclusively. 
Based on the Fed’s latest
Flow of Funds report
(Table F4, “Credit Market Borrowing”),
governments are borrowing massively.
But the collapse in private
sector credit is so dramatic that among ALL the major categories
the Fed tracks, NOT ONE is expanding its debts. Rather,
every single sector is in
advanced stages of unprecedented and massive debt
liquidations!
Specifically, as you can see in
the chart above …
- Corporations are cutting back on their bonds
at a record pace of $355 billion per year …
- Banks are cutting back on their lending at
the yearly rate of $273 billion, and …
- Worst of all, mortgages are being liquidated
at a record-smashing pace of $560 billion annually.
In addition, the Fed is
reporting net cutbacks in consumer credit ($39 billion), open
market paper ($154 billion), agency bonds ($16 billion), and other
loans ($174 billion).
And remember: We’re not just
talking about a slowdown in the pace of
new borrowing — the pattern we used to see in typical
recessions of the past. No! These are actual net reductions in debts
outstanding — the basic stuff that depressions are made
of.
In sum, nearly all the money
Bernanke has printed — plus all the money he has supposedly poured
into the economy — is going nowhere, except perhaps down the drain.
He’s clearly running on a treadmill … pushing on a string.
Whatever you do, do not
underestimate the potential impact of this situation. It is …
Huge! Including both the
government and private sectors, the total new credit created in
2007 was $4.5 trillion. Now, it’s running at an annual pace of
about ZERO! That $4.5 trillion was LOT of money — and it’s all
money that’s NOT pouring into the economy any more.
Unprecedented! This has
never happened before in modern times — not even during the deepest
recession of the postwar era. During the Great Depression? Yes. But
in proportion to GDP, the debt buildup before the Depression — as
well as the debt liquidations during the Depression — were
not as large as they are now.
Getting worse! Despite
everything Bernanke has done to try to stop it, the debt
liquidations are accelerating — especially in the mortgage area.
Consider these basic facts:
Back in 2005, lenders
issued $1.4 trillion in new mortgages over and above those that
were paid off or went bad — a fantastic amount of fresh new money
pouring into the housing and construction markets.
But by 2008, they had cut
back their new mortgage lending by a whopping 94 percent. The
industry virtually died — an unmitigated disaster for the
economy.
At that point, pundits assumed
it was the end of the decline. On a net basis, the creation of
mortgages in the U.S. was practically down to zero. “So how much
further could it possibly fall?” they asked.
Meanwhile, Bernanke apparently
assumed that, by buying crazy, unprecedented amounts of mortgage
bonds, he could somehow stop the decline — or at least offset its
impact. But the decline in the mortgage market didn’t end there in
2008 …
In
2009, it got worse — a
lot worse! Not only was new mortgage money largely unavailable but
OLD mortgage money was pulled out. Result: We saw net
mortgage liquidations
of $283 billion!
And for the first quarter of 2010, as I highlighted earlier, the
Fed reports net liquidations running at an annual pace of $560
billion, the worst in history.
The Unavoidable Consequences
These forces are more enduring
than any monetary policy, bigger than any government. They are
unmistakable, unavoidable, and overwhelming.
Bernanke can try to make believe
they don’t exist. But you cannot afford to take that risk. You must
recognize the truth and consequences that he’s not talking about
…
Consequence #1. Bernanke’s nearly powerless. No matter how many more bonds he buys, Bernanke cannot save
the recovery. Sure, he could push 30-year fixed mortgage rates down
some more. But even the lowest mortgage rates in recorded history
haven’t made a bit of difference. In fact, despite low rates,
mortgages are being liquidated at an even FASTER clip. Home sales
falling even MORE rapidly.
Consequence #2. Double dip. The
double-dip recession we’ve been warning you about is now on its
way. Meanwhile, administration economists still swear on a stack of
Bibles that the double dip is not in the cards; and private
economists think the probability of a double dip is only 20 to 30
percent. They must be getting their hallucinogens from the same
source as Bernanke.
Consequence #3. More bank
failures! As a whole, despite
government bailouts and regulatory reform, the nation’s banks and
thrifts are no healthier today than they were before the onset of
the debt crisis. The big difference: This time the government is
unlikely to have nearly as much political or financial capital to
bail them out.
What To Do
First, reduce your risk exposure.
Sell any stock or investment that may be
vulnerable to a double-dip recession and all its probable
consequences.
Second, hedge. If you are
unable or unwilling to sell, buy some protection. The most
convenient vehicle: Inverse ETFs — exchange traded funds that are
designed to rise in value as markets decline.
Third, get your money to safety. Despite the near-zero yields, short-term U.S. Treasury
bills or Treasury-only money market funds are still the safest
parking place.
Fourth, check your bank.
Click this link to review our list of
the Weakest Banks and Thrifts in the U.S.
This list includes only
institutions with a Weiss Rating of
D
(weak) or lower — institutions we believe to be
vulnerable to future financial difficulties or even failure. To be
sure, many vulnerable institutions will NOT ultimately fail.
However, we believe that their risk of failure is
high.
For your convenience, we’ve
listed them by state, then in alphabetical order. Plus, with each
institution, we provide not only the company name, but also their
state of domicile and their total assets.
This extra information is
important because there are many banks in different states that
have very similar names, and we don’t want you to make a critical
decision based on a case of mistaken identity. So make sure you’ve
got the exact name of your institution. And if you’re still not
certain, double-check by asking your banker to identify their state
of domicile.
So … is your bank on our Weakest
list? Or not?
- If your bank is NOT on Weakest list, it’s
because it has received a rating of AT LEAST C- (fair). Now, C is
not a good rating. But it means that we believe your bank is stable
and not currently
vulnerable.
- If your bank IS on the Weakest list, it
means we believe your bank is vulnerable.
If so, we recommend you
click here to
review our list of the Strongest Banks and Thrifts in the
U.S.
This list includes only
institutions with a Weiss Rating of B (good) or higher. We do not
guarantee that all of these institutions are completely safe.
However, we believe that their risk of failure is very low.
At the top of the page, click on
your state. Then, shop among the listed banks in your area.
Finally, above all …
Do
not believe Bernanke! Given all the facts he has at his fingertips — the same
ones I’ve just presented here this morning — I doubt he even
believes himself.
Good luck and God
bless!
Martin
