中国优化防疫举措提振全球经济预期
2022-12-30 08:24阅读：
作为世界第二大经济体，中国放宽出入境限制的决定给投资者带来了希望。在2023年前景黯淡之际，此举或将减轻多国加息对全球股市的影响，并打通供应链。
中国当局26日称，自明年1月8日起，入境旅客将不必在抵达时进行集中隔离。这一消息标志着中国重新放开的一系列措施中的最新一步。
美国投资银行高盛的分析师认为，尽管新冠病例激增给中国的医疗系统带来压力，但对中国经济的总体影响将是积极的。
中国放宽人员在国内的流动和入境旅行的措施，支持了高盛对2023年中国国内生产总值增长超过5%的预期。
高盛在27日发布的一份研究报告中称：“我们认为新指导方针是中国全面重新放开的重要一步。”报告称，机场、航空公司有可能受益于放宽限制措施带来的旅行增长。泰国等地区经济体或因中国的商务旅行者和游客而获益。
美国银行的一项调查显示，中国政府早些时候关于重新放开计划的声明已经改善一些全球领先的基金经理的看法。认为中国会出现更高增速的基金经理的比例从11月的仅13%飙升至约四分之三。
美国银行称：“经济衰退预期的缓解可能是受到中国增长前景改善的推动。”
China's move to ease Covid travel restrictions lifts hopes
for global economy
Analysts says lifting of many rules may soften impact of higher
interest rates and unblock supply chains in 2023
Anna Isaac
China’s decision to ease rules on
travel in and out of the country, the world’s second-largest
economy, has offered investors hope that it could soften the toll
from higher interest rates on global stock markets and unblock
supply chains amid a dark outlook for 2023.
Chinese authorities said late on Monday that inbound travellers
would not have to quarantine on arrival, from 8 January onward. The
announcement marked the latest in a series of steps to reopen the
country, which is home to vital global supply chains and 1.4
billion people.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs, a US investment bank, believe that
despite the strain on China’s medical systems amid a jump in Covid
cases, the overall impact will be positive for its economy.
The steps to free up movement of people in China domestically and
for inward travel support the investment bank’s expectation for GDP
growth above 5% in 2023, ahead of some Wall Street rivals.
“We view the new guidelines as a major step towards the full
reopening, but caution on the increased challenges to China’s
medical system in the near term,” the bank said in a research note
published on Tuesday.
Shanghai airport, Macau’s casinos and domestic and international
Chinese airlines are likely to benefit from the boost to travel
from lifting restrictions, it said. Regional economies such as
Thailand which also play a critical roles in global supply chains
are likely winners from Chinese business travellers and
tourists.
Searches for popular cross-border destinations rocketed tenfold
within half an hour of the quarantine news breaking on Monday
night, according to data from Chinese travel platform Ctrip.
The latest loosening comes after signals in recent weeks from
China’s regime that it would wind up stringent measures on
quarantine, testing and travel. Lockdowns have wreaked havoc with
global supply chains, leading to long delays to products ranging
from iPhones to cars.
Earlier statements from the regime on plans to reopen had already
improved the outlook of some of the world’s leading fund managers,
according to a survey from Bank of America (BofA).
Expectations for higher growth in China leapt to about
three-quarters, up from just 13% in November. The proportion
expecting the global economy to weaken fell slightly to 69%, down
from 73% in November.
“The easing in recession expectations were likely driven by an
improved outlook on China’s growth,” BofA said.
The heightened pace of removing restrictions in China comes as UK
stock markets ready to reopen Wednesday after closing for the
Christmas holiday.
US stock indices were subdued Tuesday amid thin-holiday trading,
dashing hopes of a year-end rally. In China, the Shanghai stock
exchange rose 1% and the CSI 300 Index, which is built from the 300
largest companies listed in major Chinese financial centres
Shanghai and Shenzhen, gained 1.15%.
Investors are likely to cling to any small improvement in the
outlook at the end of 2022, after a poor year for global financial
markets.
Even so, they may still be too optimistic on prospects for riskier
assets such as developed economy stocks, according to analysts at
Capital Economics, a financial consultancy firm.
“Investors seem increasingly to have come around to our view on
inflation over the past couple of months, namely that it will fall
very quickly in the US next year and a bit more slowly elsewhere,”
said Thomas Matthews in a note to clients.
This means that they expect the US Federal Reserve and some other
major central banks to dial down plans for for interest rate
hikes.
“However, unlike us, investors still seem to expect that this will
be achieved without much of a slowdown in growth,” he added.
US credit spreads, a measure which indicate the risk of borrowing
in a market, suggest that investors expect US companies to fare
relatively well next year. A range of corporate analyst reports in
developed markets are still indicating some major economies might
escape a recession.
However, while Capital Economics and investment banks including JP
Morgan believe these measures signal too much positivity and
recession will hit the US in 2023 and 2024, Goldman Sachs
disagrees.
“Our most out-of-consensus forecast for 2023 is our call that the
US will avoid a recession and instead continue progressing toward a
soft landing,” it said in a note to clients on 26 December.
