中吉乌铁路要来了
2023-01-27 15:13阅读:

上世纪90年代初,从连云港经新疆穿越哈萨克斯坦和俄罗斯,直达荷兰鹿特丹的铁路线运行,形成了新亚欧大陆桥。这顿时引起了“亚洲运输走廊”组织(TRACECA)的关注(TRACECA是致力于发展从欧洲穿过黑海、高加索、里海并到达中亚各国的运输的地区间组织,其发起国就是中亚五国,新亚欧大陆桥的兴起促使其希望进一步加强中亚各国的铁路运力)。
于是,TRACECA于1997年提出建立连接中国、吉尔吉斯斯坦和乌兹别克斯坦的中吉乌铁路。同年,中国、吉尔吉斯斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦三国就中吉乌铁路建设签署了合作备忘录。经过规划,中吉乌铁路起点为中国新疆边陲重镇喀什,穿越吉尔吉斯斯坦南部,至吉、乌边界的卡拉苏接入既有铁路,终点为乌兹别克斯坦东部城市安集延,铁路全长约577km,中国境内新建长度约为166km。
如果中吉乌铁路完工之后,向西延伸可经伊朗、土耳其,跨过伊斯坦布尔海峡,到巴尔干半岛;或经土库曼斯坦经里海渡轮到阿塞拜疆的巴库,经格鲁吉亚到保加利亚。中吉乌铁路的修建将形成第二亚欧大陆桥的又一支线,又叫第二大陆桥的南部通道,向西直通中亚、西亚及欧洲各国,意味着条新的亚欧大陆桥的开通,具有重要的政治、经济意义。
中吉乌铁路重点方案线路调查及沿线测绘已完成,全部科研工作按计划将于2023年6月底前完成。
China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway back to
life
But major challenges to the project remain
By JAVIER M. PIEDRA And PRAVESH KUMAR GUPTA
On Thursday, the Kyrgyz Ministry of Transport announced that
“representatives of Uzbekistan’s Temir Yollari JSC, the national
railway company, arrived in the Kyrgyz Republic to participate in
the opening of a joint Project Office to coordinate the
construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan (CKU) railway.”
This news was not an isolated event but rather further confirmation
that Bishkek, Beijing and Tashkent are determined to work together
to expand interregional connectivity and further Eurasian
integration.
The newly arrived Uzbek contingent in Kyrgyzstan joined 180 Chinese
specialists already in the region since last August. The purpose of
all this activity in sync with Kyrgyz engineers is to prepare
technical reports and feasibility studies for the
China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway, a fresh artery for East-West
trade. These commitments of personnel are solid evidence that
headway is being made for a transport project long on the drawing
board.
The China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway
The CKU railway, originally conceived in the mid-1990s, is expected
to be about 523 kilometers long (213km in China, 260km in
Kyrgyzstan, and 50km in Uzbekistan). The Kyrgyz portion, by far the
most complicated, would include some 90 tunnels and steep climbs
and descents, including over the Torugart Pass (3,750 meters).
While still not entirely settled, the railway is expected to follow
an existing transmontane highway along the
Torugart-Arpa-Makmal-Jalal-Abad corridor, according to the Kyrgyz
National Railway Company. When completed, the railway will connect
Kashgar Rail Terminus in Xinjiang with Uzbekistan’s rail network in
Andijan.
After years of delay, the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway has
come back to life.
The main reasons for the project’s newly found buoyancy are the
practical need for Eurasian integration, vastly improved diplomatic
relations between Uzbekistan and the Kyrgyz Republic, Bishkek’s
reduced skittishness toward Beijing, and the determined push by
regional governments to line up funding and send experts to
complete field surveys over demanding mountainous topography.
Besides, the Ukraine crisis and the disruption of supply chains
through Russia have given more urgency to the CKU project.
Sustained commitment
In addition to increased numbers of personnel on the ground, the
diplomatic paper trail is clear. Kyrgyzstan, China and Uzbekistan
jointly signed a trilateral Agreement of Cooperation at the 22nd
Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit in Uzbekistan in September
specifically to advance the project.
Moreover, to maintain a head of steam, Uzbek President Shavkat
Mirziyoyev, Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov, Chinese President Xi
are fully on board given their multiple statements and meetings
over the past months in support of the CKU project.
What’s more, the “Samarkand Declaration” of the Council of Heads of
State of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization unequivocally
endorsed Eurasian economic integration and connectivity, apparently
snookering those who support “bloc politics” before constructive
engagement and dialogue.
Possible setbacks
Despite progress, however, several issues may work to delay the
high-profile CKU project. First, there exists a long-standing
economic and political divide between interest groups in “northern”
versus “southern” Kyrgyzstan. This scuffle for power is not
insignificant and could throw a monkey wrench into the process of
selecting the final path and funding mechanisms for the railway.
Second, it has been suggested that some foreign interests seek to
exploit Kyrgyzstan’s volatile internal differences by encouraging
“color revolutions” – a well-known instrument for regime change –
in order to stymie Eurasian integration.
Third, if the Kyrgyz-Tajik border again turns violent, as happened
last September, the CKU railway could be temporarily put on ice.
Without inter-regional stability, the viability of any long-term
capital intensive project with cross-border dimensions will be
brought into question. The Fergana Valley, a complex and
agriculturally rich region that straddles Uzbekistan, Tajikistan
and Kyrgyzstan, has historically been volatile.
Project funding
It appears that the participating nations have decided to share the
costs of financing the CKU railway evenly, but that remains to be
seen. Moreover, multiple sources indicate that construction costs
will approach US$4.5 billion over several years; that is not petty
cash.
Whatever the final number will be, funding will need to be
long-term and at concessionary rates to have any chance of success,
and preferably in local currency. Many highly ambitious
public-private-partnership schemes that have been structured in US
dollars in the past have tended to fail from exchange-rate risk,
unclear risk-sharing mechanisms, and poor management.
Moreover, if foreign investment banks are to be involved, regional
governments should insist on a financial structure that is
beneficial in the first instance to the country, which usually
means that the host government should assume local currency rather
than dollar-denominated obligations.
Already burdened with significant levels of sovereign debt, mostly
Chinese, Kyrgyzstan will be hard-pressed to come up with “its
share” of the money on terms that do not mortgage the country’s
future.
Uzbekistan, on the other hand, given its leadership and ongoing
economic transformation over the past years, stands a good chance
to attract capital at affordable rates and understands the
financial risks associated with taking on hard-currency debt.
What’s more, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan are betting that China will
step in with more favorable financing terms than Western capital
markets might offer, although all options will be pursued.
Russia is not expected to play a direct financial role in the
development of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway line unless
Western interests, other than the international development banks,
try to fund the lion’s share of the project, which is unlikely. As
such. Russia will remain an observer and serve as a cheerleader on
the sidelines.
Overall Eurasian integration remains a top priority for Russia,
especially in light of the Ukraine conflict and a hostile Europe.
Curiously, some analysts argue that the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan
railway line initiative represents one more means to avoid
transporting Chinese goods across Russian territory to Europe.
While partially true, Russia is not interested in monopolizing
East-West trade as long as Eurasian integration presses forward.
Uzbekistan
President Mirziyoyev’s personal involvement is a sine qua non for
the success of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway line – and
so far, he has shown remarkable leadership.
He has repeatedly approved plans to advance the railway initiative
and recently ordered the government “to create a project office” to
figure out how “to attract an international consulting company and
to hold negotiations with investors.” These are all small steps in
a complex process and indicate serious statecraft.
In his year-end address to the Oliy Majlis (parliament) and the
people of Uzbekistan, Mirziyoyev confidently stated that “it is
possible to attract up to $1 billion per year to the agriculture,
water management, forestry and transport spheres through
public-private partnerships.”
If the situation in the region remains stable, which is expected,
there is no reason to think that Uzbekistan will not be able to
raise funding on favorable terms for its section of the railway.
Showing real diplomatic skill, Mirziyoyev is in regular contact
with his counterparts in China and Kyrgyzstan and engages
constructively with Azerbaijan, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan,
Turkey and Turkmenistan on all matters related to Eurasia
integration and connectivity.
Despite geopolitical hiccups, potential funding issues,
topographical challenges, would-be inter-regional ethno-cultural
flareups and pestiferous external meddling, it seems more likely
than ever that the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway will not run
out of steam but rather move forward successfully.
Field surveys are expected to be finished by the end of June. Time
will tell if all goes according to plan.