美元遭全球厌弃实属咎由自取
2023-05-19 09:43阅读：
美国的流行文化让人以为，持有外国银行账户是一件坏事，因为它必然意味着你向当局隐瞒了什么。实际情况则截然相反。首先，按照法律规定，所有美国人每年都必须在纳税申报表上申报自己在外国银行的账户余额。其次，外国银行也必须向美国政府通报美国客户的所有信息。这些监管规定仅适用于来自“自由之乡”的公民，他们制造了监管麻烦，而能够带来的业务价值往往不值得这样的劳神。
当然，除了这种办法，欧洲或非洲的银行还可以告诉美国政府：它们是在外国，不需要遵守另一个大陆上的国家的法律。但是，这样做的负面影响是被冻结在美国银行系统之外，由于美元是世界储备货币，后果可能是灾难性的。但是，随着美国联邦政府在拜登总统执政下趋于更加强硬，利用其金融实力让他国屈服，其他国家开始另辟蹊径以减少对美元的依赖。
1944年，布雷顿森林会议确定了把美元作为世界储备货币，美元币值直接与黄金挂钩，每盎司35美元。
世界历史始终证明，国际贸易需要一种储备货币，而储备货币必须被公认为健全而有价值。
美国一直保留金本位，直到1971年，由于经济与军事并重的政府，美国政府开支开始急剧上升，进而失控。一旦美元摆脱了盯住黄金的束缚，政客们就能加大印钞力度，无中生有，制造出钱来，于是通货膨胀很快成为一个主要问题。
美国货币仍然是世界储备货币，因为它仍然拥有可靠的声誉，所有国际石油合同都是用美元结算，没有强劲的对手。但是，到了21世纪，通货膨胀再次成为严重问题，美国政府的债务增加了两倍以上。美元声誉不断下滑，沙特阿拉伯等国眼下正在认真考虑使用中国货币人民币向中国人出售石油。
制裁是一种经济武器，限制美国公民、公司或机构与美国政府制裁的国家或实体进行生意往来。截至2022年，受制裁的可能是一个完整的国家，如伊朗、古巴或俄罗斯，
也可能是津巴布韦政府官员这类个人。直到第二次世界大战后，当美元成为世界储备货币时，制裁才被当作是美国的一项有效政策。
1990年以来，世界上政府实施的制裁中，有三分之二出自美国。制裁是针对较小国家实施的，比如伊朗和朝鲜；它通常被当作无需动用军事威胁或行动就能落实美国意志的手段。
但自2022年俄罗斯出兵乌克兰之后，美国对俄罗斯实施了全面制裁，它可能做过了头。俄罗斯是世界第11大经济体，是欧洲最大能源出口国。很多欧洲国家面临着在能源价格上涨及与美国关系受损二者之间的选择。
美国制裁俄罗斯的另一个后果是：由于认同美国制裁的国家的能源供应大大受限，全球能源价格攀升。这对普通美国人造成了负面影响，而对仍然与俄罗斯有生意往来的国家的公民来说却是一个恩惠。
类似地，俄罗斯在全球银行存放的价值近3000亿美元的资产被冻结，这其中就包括美元。没收这笔钱主要是为了拖垮俄罗斯经济，但似乎并未达到目的。同时，其他国家也在盯着美国，并担心它们在美国的银行中存放的资产不安全，可能会突然被没收。
金砖国家也在积极探索替代美元的办法。如果它们达成一致，那可能有助于加速全球去美元化进程。制裁俄罗斯已经让其他国家对依赖美元以及美国如何利用自己的货币让别国屈服警惕起来。
历史上，没有哪个货币能做到永远是全球储备货币。美元之前，是英镑，再往前是西班牙银元。美元作为世界储备货币的地位对全球来说基本上是积极的，因为它推动了全球化，而全球化降低了全球贫困率。
但是，美国领导人一直把这种幸运地位视为理所当然。他们通过过度开支拉低了币值；他们对本国公民实施限制，损害其在全球市场做生意的便利性；他们利用权势欺凌其他国家，强制它们遵循自己的意志。
如果情况不改变，那么最终没人愿意与欺凌者为伍。美国人将发现自己被世界其他地方孤立，持有的美元也买不到过去能买的东西。
No One Wants to Play With Bullies: How US Politicians Are
Destroying the Dollar's Global Primacy
American leaders have taken their fortunate position for granted
for too long.
Daniel Kowalski
In the United States, popular culture has created the impression
that having a bank account in a foreign country is bad because it
must mean that you are hiding something from the authorities. The
reality of the situation is pretty much the opposite. First of all,
all Americans are legally required to declare their foreign bank
accounts with their balances every year on their tax returns.
Second of all, foreign banks have to share all of their information
about their American customers with the US government as well.
These surveillance regulations only apply to the citizens from “the
land of the free” and they create a regulatory headache that’s
often not worth the value of the business the American customer
will bring.
Of course, the alternative to this could be that a bank in Europe
or Africa could tell the American government that they are in a
sovereign country and they don’t need to obey laws from a country
on another continent, but the flipside to not complying is being
frozen out of the United States banking system which could be
catastrophic because the US dollar is the world’s reserve currency.
But as the United States Federal government becomes more hawkish
under the Biden presidency to use their financial power to bend the
will of foreign nations, there are other countries looking for ways
to be less dependent on the dollar.
Reserve Currency
The Bretton-Woods Conference in 1944 established that the dollar
would be the world’s reserve currency and its value would be
directly pegged to gold with one ounce costing $35. World history
has always demonstrated that a reserve currency is needed for
international trade and that it needs to be recognized as sound and
valuable.
The United States remained on the gold standard until 1971 when
government spending started to spiral out of control thanks to
butter and guns policies. Once the dollar was freed of its gold
pegging, politicians could then ramp up the printing presses to
create money out of nothing and inflation soon became a major
problem.
The United States remained the world’s reserve currency because it
still had a solid reputation, all international oil contracts were
done in dollars, and there wasn’t a strong rival. But in the 21st
century, inflation is once again a huge problem and the American
government’s debts have more than tripled. The dollar’s reputation
is declining and countries like Saudi Arabia are now seriously
considering selling their oil to the Chinese using their yuan
currency.
US Sanctions
Sanctions are an economic weapon that restricts US citizens,
companies, or institutions from doing business with a country or
entity that is considered to be under sanction by the US
government. This could be an entire country like Iran, Cuba, or
Russia as of 2022, or it could be individuals such as government
officials in Zimbabwe. Sanctions were not considered to be an
effective policy for the United States until the aftermath of World
War II when the dollar became the world’s reserve currency.
Since 1990, two-thirds of the world’s government-imposed sanctions
have come from the United States. The policy was wielded against
smaller countries like Iran and North Korea and it was generally
praised as a means to enforce the United States’ will without the
need of military threat or action.
But in 2022, the US might have gone too far when broad sanctions
were imposed on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine. Russia is
the world’s 11th largest economy and it is the largest exporter of
energy to Europe. Many European countries are faced with the choice
of higher energy prices versus upsetting American relations.
Another consequence of American sanctions on Russia is that the
price of energy has risen worldwide because the supply of energy to
countries respecting the US sanctions is now greatly limited. This
has been a negative consequence for the ordinary American and a
boon to citizens of countries still doing business with Russia like
China.
Likewise, approximately $300 billion of assets that Russia had in
banks worldwide has been frozen and this includes US dollars. This
money has essentially been seized in an effort to cripple the
Russian economy but that effort appears to have failed. At the same
time, other countries are looking at the United States and are
worried that any assets they might have in our banks are not secure
and can be confiscated on a whim.
China and Russia
In early April, Chinese Chairman Xi visited Moscow to encourage
improved relations between the two large nations. Part of those
improvements is that both countries will now trade with each other
using China’s currency, the yuan, instead of the traditional dollar
because of United States sanctions. This move is one of the few
options that Russia has since they have been frozen out of the US
dollar, and it’s a win for China as a rising global superpower that
seeks to rival the United States.
The BRICS alliance (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa)
are all actively looking for an alternative to the US dollar and if
they agree to one, then it could help accelerate the world’s
dedollarization. Sanctions against Russia have made other nations
wary about depending on the dollar and how the United States uses
its currency to bend the will of other nations.
These five nations are all economically very powerful and could
rival the G7 for global dominance. While the dollar might not be
dethroned overnight, it could and would be a very gradual
process.
Can We Reverse the Course?
Historically, no currency has been the global reserve currency
forever. Before the dollar there was the British pound and before
that there was the Spanish dollar. The US dollar’s status as the
world’s reserve currency has been largely positive for the world as
it has fostered globalization and capitalism and that has driven
down the worldwide rate of poverty.
But American leaders have taken their fortunate position for
granted for too long. They have lowered the value of the currency
by spending too much, they impose restrictions on their own
citizens that hurt their ease of doing business in the global
market, and they use their position of power to bully other
countries into obeying their will.
If things do not change then eventually no one will want to play
with the bully. Americans will find themselves isolated from the
rest of the world, holding onto dollars that don’t buy what they
used to.
