中国想成为变革催化剂，美国想得到报酬
2023-06-17 07:41阅读：
在沙特访问期间，美国国务卿布林肯断言，华盛顿“不要求任何人在美中之间作出选择”。
虽然他的话很笼统，但他说话的地点提供了许多线索：沙特，更重要的是，中东。
这是个动荡不安的地区，关系正在改变，权力的天平显然正在发生变化。
3月，全世界听到了沙特与伊朗经中国斡旋达成和解协议的消息。布林肯是自那以来访问沙特的第三位美国高官。
报道称，巴勒斯坦总统阿巴斯本周对中国进行国事访问期间，中方表示愿为巴方实现内部和解、推动和谈发挥积极作用。
鉴于这一系列具有重要地缘政治意义的事件，人们提出的问题是，这是否是中国为填补美国在中东形成的真空所进行的努力之一。
阿纳多卢通讯社就此问题采访了两位专家。
北京太和智库高级研究员艾那·唐根说，美国已经从中东国家的“能源客户”变成了“主要能源竞争对手”。
他说：“关系发生了巨大变化，尤其是与海湾合作委员会，还有整个地区。”
他还说，由于北京是海湾合作委员会的主要能源买家，所以“希望中东政治稳定”。
上海外国语大学中东研究所教授范鸿达说，中国在中东的首要关切是“经济和贸易合作”。
范鸿达强调，中国和美国在该地区的外交方针存在“巨大差异”。
他说，他不同意中国“将填补美国在中东留下的真空”的看法，“事实上，美国在中东的影响力和吸引力仍然是其他外部国家无法比拟的”。
他强调，中东国家需要“实现战略自主，这是该地区持久稳定、和平与发展的关键保障”，“中国欢迎这样一个中东，因为这是双方深化交流的保障”。
唐根则表示，中国认为美国在中东的做法是“有害的”，尤其是由于多年来的“直接干涉”。
他说：“可以看出，中国的努力不是为了发号施令以有利于自己……而是试图让他们谈判，而不是
战斗。”
他还说，尽管很多人在谈论中国“填补了美国留下的真空”，但“从整体和实质上说，中国的参与并不是美国式殖民统治，而是建设性的共识构建”。
他说：“中国对新兴多边现实的叙述是‘全球南方’崛起。”
他说：“这并非选边站的问题……中国希望成为变革的催化剂，这与美国这样的掮客希望得到报酬不一样。”
Is China filling a US-shaped void in the Middle
East?
China's Middle East outreach counters America's 'toxic approach'
but is more about regional stability to secure its own interests,
analysts say
Riyaz ul Khaliq
ISTANBUL
While in Saudi Arabia last week, America’s top diplomat Antony
Blinken went out of his way to assert that Washington is “not
asking anyone to choose between the US and China.”
His words may have been quite general, but where he uttered them
gave a lot of context: Saudi Arabia, and more importantly, the
Middle East.
This is a region in flux, where relationships are changing and the
scales of power apparently shifting.
Blinken was the third senior US official to visit the kingdom since
March, when the world woke up to the news of a China-brokered deal
between Saudi Arabia and Iran, an agreement viewed by many as
Beijing’s “diplomatic coup.”
When the deal was signed, Wang Yi, China’s top foreign affairs
adviser, took an apparent jibe at the US, saying “the world is not
limited to just the Ukraine issue.”
Things have progressed to the point where Iran has reopened its
embassy in Riyadh, seven years after it was locked down, and its
consulate in Jeddah.
Building on the momentum, Beijing reiterated its willingness to
mediate on the region’s other major rivalry – the Palestine-Israel
issue – as Foreign Minister Qin Gang phoned his Palestinian and
Israeli counterparts to extend the offer.
This Tuesday, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas landed in Beijing
on his fifth official visit to China as the two nations mark 35
years of diplomatic relations.
After talks with Abbas on Wednesday, President Xi said China stands
ready to work for internal reconciliation in Palestine, as well as
peace talks for a “durable solution” to the dispute with
Israel.
Given this series of geopolitically significant events, the
question being asked is whether it is all part of a Chinese push to
fill a US-shaped void in the Middle East.
The answer, though, is far from certain and just as complex as the
long history of this strategic region.
Leaving Saudi Arabia—a nation we have shared 80 years of
partnership with—I am heartened by the new avenues for cooperation
we've created with Saudi and @GCC partners. Together, we will
continue our urgent work on Sudan, ensure ISIS stays defeated, and
tackle global challenges. pic.twitter.com/EqyqwoQr1z
— Secretary Antony Blinken (@SecBlinken) June 8, 2023
‘Tremendous chess play going on’
There are at least two reasons why Beijing is getting closer to
Middle Eastern nations, according to Andrew Leung, a Hong
Kong-based analyst.
“The US is not the biggest customer for oil from the Middle East,
China is,” he told Anadolu.
Secondly, he said China enjoys friendly relations with both Saudi
Arabia and Iran.
“It is not criticizing either of them on human rights, democracy
and so on,” he added.
Andrew said the Middle East is witnessing “tremendous chess play
going on” between two big powers, the US and China.
The US has been “trying to contain” China both in technology and
diplomacy, besides the South China Sea and Taiwan, he
explained.
“There is eagerness on part of the US to establish relations in
Beijing … to eat the cake and have it at the same time … (as)
demonization of China still goes on,” he said.
Einar Tangen, a commentator and analyst focused on China, said the
US has switched from a client “for energy to a major energy
competitor” for Middle East countries.
“The relationship has dramatically changed, with the GCC (Gulf
Cooperation Council) in particular, and the region in general,” he
said.
Since it is the GCC’s major energy buyer, Beijing “wants the Middle
East to be politically stable,” he added.
Economy at play
Hongda Fan, a professor at the Middle East Studies Institute of the
Shanghai International Studies University, said China’s two primary
concerns in the Middle East are “economic and trade
cooperation.”
The assessment is in line with what President Xi said at the first
China-GCC Summit in Riyadh last December, where he outlined
Beijing’s five priority areas, including using the Chinese yuan for
oil and gas transactions.
For such plans to materialize, the Middle East needs
stability.
That is why Beijing is pushing for peace in the Middle East, “which
is also what Middle Eastern countries generally desire,” Hongda
told Anadolu.
However, he said China’s role in the Saudi Arabia-Iran deal “should
not be overstated.”
“China’s success is based on the fact that both Iran and Saudi
Arabia have a strong desire for detente, and that the two countries
have resolved most of the difficulties in resuming diplomatic
relations with the help of Iraq and Oman,” he explained.
He underlined that there is a “huge difference” in China and the
US’ diplomatic approach in the region.
Disagreeing with the notion that China “will fill the vacuum left
by the US in the Middle East,” he said: “In fact, the influence and
attractiveness of the US in the Middle East are still unmatched by
other external countries.”
Hongda underscored the need for Middle Eastern states to “achieve
strategic autonomy, which is the key guarantee for lasting
stability, peace and development in the region.”
“China welcomes such a Middle East because it is a guarantee that
the two sides can deepen exchanges,” he added.
‘Catalyst for change’
Einar, who is a senior fellow at the Taihe Institute in Beijing,
said China views America’s approach in the Middle East as “toxic,”
particularly due to the years of “direct interference” and
turmoil.
“China’s efforts, as can be seen, are not to dictate terms
favorable to itself … but rather to try to get them to talk,
instead of fight,” Einar told Anadolu.
Despite much talk about China “filling the void” left by the US,
the “sum and substance of China’s involvement is not about American
colonial domination, but constructive consensus building,” he
added.
This thinking is based on Beijing’s view of the Middle East “as a
resource supplier and a trade market,” according to Einar.
“China’s narrative about the emerging multilateral reality is about
the rise of the Global South,” he said.
“It is not about choosing sides … China wants to be a catalyst for
change. The difference being brokers like America expect to be
paid.”
‘Israelis not interested’
China has held a “consistent” position on Palestine, while trying
to benefit from its ties with Israel, particularly in technology
and defense, since the 1980s, according to Sami al-Arian, director
of an Istanbul-based think tank.
China has “tried to be consistent on the rights of Palestinians
without really offering much,” he told Anadolu.
Beijing’s push for better relations with Palestinians is because it
is “trying to assert its positions across the Middle East” and has
certain other objectives, he said.
“They would like to convince the Saudis that they (Chinese) are a
reliable partner. That they can pay in yuan, rather in dollars,” he
explained.
“That would be a direct challenge to US hegemony in the
area.”
After the success with Iran and other Gulf states, China would like
to “establish other victories ... and then of course if they can, a
breakthrough with Palestine,” said al-Arian.
However, he said the US would “not allow” China to get involved in
peace efforts or negotiations on the Palestine-Israel issue.
“More importantly, the Israelis are not interested,” he
added.
