中国屡屡令世界措手不及
2023-07-25 10:59阅读：
中国屡屡令世界措手不及。2013年开启的“一带一路”倡议，还有最近成为世界最大汽车出口国和电动汽车领域的领先者，这些都让国际社会大部分成员感到意外。
我们没有办法杜绝一切出其不意，但可以通过制定理解中国的全面框架来提高可能性：不仅关注中国的实际情况，而且关注其远大目标；不仅关注中国领导人，而且关注中国社会；不仅关注中国外部的观点，而且关注中国内部的观点。
中国政策既反映实际情况，也反映远大目标。比如，中国电动汽车行业的惊人崛起并非一夜之间的奇迹，而是国家长期战略优先的结果。
1999年，中国提出了行动目标、时间表以及中央和地方政府的一系列措施，支持国内清洁能源车辆生产。
有时，进展令人沮丧。直到2020年，中国距离500万辆电动汽车产量的目标还有一段距离。但去年，中国生产了705.8万辆电动汽车。现在，随着中国准备向世界其他地方出口汽车，汽车制造商——特别是对中国电动汽车进口经济壁垒较低的欧洲——正面临着艰难应对的局面。
在中国待上一段时间对于避免感到意外非常重要。
分析家、新闻记者、商人和学生有必要前往中国，探究这个国家的错综复杂与细微差别。
随着中国调整疫情防控政策，美国及其他地方的领导人正在抓住机会与中国同行互动，亲眼见证这个国家如何运行。没有一个优秀教练会主动忽视亲自了解顶尖竞争对手的思维与计划的机会。
通过从多个角度审视中国，国际社会最有可能避免错失良机以及遭遇代价高昂的意外。
China wins advantage with art of surprise
The opacity of its system enables the country to routinely shock
the rest of the world
ELIZABETH ECONOMY
China has repeatedly caught the world off-guard. Its Belt and Road
Initiative launched in 2013, its management of Covid at home and
abroad and, most recently, its emergence as the world’s biggest
auto exporter and leader in electric vehicles have all surprised
large segments of the international community.
Typically, the element of surprise in international politics relies
on a determined effort to deceive or do the unexpected. But the
Chinese government has perfected the art of surprise by default.
The opacity of its system enables China to routinely shock the rest
of the world and force others to spend time, energy and money
adjusting their expectations and policies in response.
There is no way to avoid all surprise, but we improve the odds by
adopting a comprehensive framework for understanding China: one
that pays attention not only to its on-the-ground reality, but also
its long-term ambition; not only to Chinese leaders, but also to
Chinese society; not only to the view from outside China, but also
to that from within.
Chinese policy reflects a mix of both on-the ground reality and
long-term ambition. The startling rise of China’s EV sector, for
example, was not an overnight miracle. It was a long-term national
strategic priority.
In 1999, China put in motion targets, timetables, and a range of
central and local government actions that supported domestic clean
vehicle production and complicated efforts for foreign
manufacturers.
Progress was, at times, grim. Top-down mandates yielded electric
buses without seats and cars without batteries. As late as 2020,
China missed its goal of 5mn units by several million. But, last
year, China produced 5.8mn EVs. Now, as China prepares to unleash
its cars on the rest of the world, automakers — particularly in
Europe, where the economic barrier to Chinese EV imports is low —
are left struggling to respond.
But ambition does not always translate into reality. Beijing
planned 1,000 Confucius Institutes to promote Chinese language and
culture in universities worldwide by 2020, but there are just over
half that number. Its Thousand Talents programme did recruit 8,000
scientists and engineers to China from overseas during 2008-2018,
but few were top-tier — and only 390 were born outside China.
And, of course, Belt and Road has been a complicated mix of success
and failure — cementing China’s economic, political, and strategic
influence in some countries, while prompting significant popular
backlashes in others.
For the international community, though, there is also a price to
pay for overestimating China’s success.
Its government’s support for Russia is evident: presidents Xi and
Vladimir Putin in 2020 declared that the “friendship between the
two states has no limits”. But we must not assume there is no
discourse or dissent within Chinese society. A number of academics
have publicly denounced Beijing’s strong support for Moscow.
And, as Russia’s internal challenges and external failings mount,
internal pressure on Beijing to modify its position may increase.
The Chinese government’s Covid U-turn demonstrated how even a
seemingly unshakeable policy can be shaken given the right domestic
pressures.
Spending time in China is essential to avoid surprises. Its
political environment may not be as welcoming to foreigners as
previously, but that means more, not fewer, foreigners should
travel there. Analysts, journalists, businesspeople and students
need to be in China to plumb the complexity and nuances of the
country and its politics.
As travel to China opens up, leaders in the US and elsewhere are
taking the opportunity to engage with their Chinese counterparts
and witness how the country works. No good coach would actively
ignore the opportunity for a first-hand look at the mindset and
playbook of a top competitor.
President Xi has set out an array of grand-scale initiatives to
promote China on the global stage. Some will come to fruition, some
will not. But, by looking at China through a range of lenses, the
international community has the best chance of avoiding missed
opportunities and costly surprise.
