尼日尔的故事
2023-08-08 19:11阅读：
尼日尔政变后，西非国家经济共同体领导人发布最后通牒，限尼日尔军方于8月6日前将权力归还该国总统巴祖姆，否则将进行军事干预。随着最后期限的过去，非洲人民屏住呼吸，将目光集中在西共体领导人下一步行动上。法新社7日称，尼日尔军政府6日晚间宣布，由于“军事干预威胁”，该国领空已被关闭。截至本报7日晚发稿时，尚未有迹象表明西共体对尼日尔出兵干预。
Why Niger is a new front in the modern Cold
War
A coup in a poor African nation is not unheard of, but the
modern-day geopolitical context gives it global significance
By Timur Fomenko, a political analyst
The military of the west African nation of Niger has deposed the
government in a coup, setting the stage for a new confrontation
with the West. Niger has been in a similar situation to most states
in West Africa, with its former colonial overlord France continuing
to wield financial and military power over the country and
interfering in the country’s domestic a
ffairs.
For that reason, the coup has been popular, with even a few
protesters demanding France get out and Russia come in. In the new
geopolitical environment we live in, African states now have
increased political space and options to expel Western influence.
Niger, a landlocked, impoverished and war-torn country, albeit one
rich in raw materials, is set to become a new frontier.
In the era of American unipolarity, the states of Africa were
exposed to the West. Poor, desperate, and unstable, many African
nations were forced to rely on their former colonial overlords, as
well as the US, for various forms of assistance. This was
especially true during the ‘war on terror’ era, when Islamic
insurgencies threatened the security of their populations. French
and US Special Forces would be deployed to fight terrorists in West
African states, for example in a horrific kidnapping in a hotel in
Mali in 2015. However, this assistance, be it financial or
military, came at the cost of requiring that African states fulfill
the ideological terms and conditions of the West – a form of
neocolonialism.
The world has changed, though. The war-on-terror context is over,
and instead we now live in a geopolitical environment dictated by
sharp competition between powerful countries – primarily the US and
its allies against rivals such as China and Russia. This
environment means that African states now have other “options” to
choose from for assistance, which allows them to maximise their own
political autonomy and space rather than fulfilling the ideological
conditions of another. For example, African states reportedly
increasingly use the Wagner Group for security rather than Western
assistance, while China’s Belt and Road initiative also means
African states can no longer be exploited by organisations such as
the IMF.
In these circumstances, with militaries being the strongest
political actors in unstable countries such as Niger, the
opportunity arises for them to seize power and be protected from
Western predation, because in this international system, the US can
no longer conduct direct unilateral military interventions. This
has seen governments and militaries take advantage of an
anti-French backlash across West Africa and use it to begin driving
out the presence of the former colonial masters. In just the space
of a year, the French army has been expelled from Mali and Burkina
Faso. Niger is presumably next. However, the risk of a
French-backed civil war does remain.
Should the coup in Niger ultimately succeed, the new authorities
are intent on forming closer relations with Russia, which can
become a new and much less complicated guarantor of security.
While China typically provides economic and infrastructure
assistance to African states, as well as a guarantee of
non-intervention and support for national sovereignty, it is less
overt and restrained in providing specific military support to
crush insurgencies, which is more Russia’s niche.
Niger of course has strategic significance too. While it is easy to
dismiss it as a landlocked and impoverished country in the middle
of the desert, Niger has a critical stock of natural resources,
including uranium, coal, gold, iron ore, tin, phosphates,
petroleum, molybdenum, salt, and gypsum. Its uranium supplies are
among the world’s largest, which is absolutely critical for nuclear
power. It is for this reason that France is not willing to give up
Niger without a fight, and a potential proxy conflict may loom. If
Western-backed interests in the country are defeated, the strategic
loss of Niger in terms of the resources it wields would be huge,
and it is highly likely that China would gain an advantage over the
West in the process.
All of this has made Niger into the world’s most unlikely new
frontier. While talk of coups and civil wars in Africa may seem
ordinary to Western audiences, they are now happening in a new
geopolitical environment widely perceived as a new Cold War. The
West’s condescending attitude towards Africa, a continent that
seeks its own independence and prosperity, is taking its toll.
Doors are opening for other players, and that’s why we’re here
today.
