世界应害怕美国，而非和平的中国
2023-08-21 14:07阅读：
得益于许多自然优势、启蒙运动和欧洲移民带来的好处，美国被一些人认为是历史上最强大的帝国，而它正在建造一堵高科技城墙，试图阻止中国的经济和科技进步。
World has more to fear from an aggressive US than peaceful
China
With all the toxic politics in Washington and its obsession with
global dominance, isn't the United States the biggest threat to
global peace and stability?
Regina Ip
Some 2,200 years ago, the first emperor of China built a wall to
fend off marauding barbarians from the north. The Great Wall of
China kept the invaders at bay for long periods, but it did not
prevent it from being breached from time to time. In 1644, despite
the Great Wall, China fell to the Manchu. They established the Qing
dynasty, the last imperial dynasty of China.
Today, the United States – consid
ered by some the most powerful empire in human history, thanks to
its many natural advantages and benefits from the Enlightenment and
European migration – is building a great wall of hi-tech to stymie
China’s economic and technological advancement.
In another major step forward in this tech war on China, US
President Joe Biden issued an executive order on August 9 which
restricts US flows of knowledge and capital into “certain national
security sensitive technologies and products in countries of
concern”. China was identified as the only “country of concern” –
alongside the special administrative regions of Hong Kong and Macau
– posing a national security threat and warranting the use of
economic emergency powers.
The order was not unexpected. However, the scope for further
modifications to make sure China does not pose any threat to the
US’ technological advantage is firm evidence of the latter’s
determination to be the sole winner in the technology race.
Earlier this month, Harvard political scientist Stephen Walt wrote
an opinion piece asking how scared the world should be of China.
There are no definitive answers to the five questions he posed,
which concerned China’s economic prospects, the effectiveness of
export controls, the directions of China’s leadership, the
effectiveness of Asia balancing, and the reaction of the rest of
the world.
I think a different question – how scared should the world be of
the United States? – should be posed instead. We have a lot more to
fear from the US than from China, which faces strong economic
headwinds, challenging demographics and well-coordinated economic
and technological containment by the US and its allies.
China is engaged in territorial disputes and border conflicts, and
its approach to foreign policy has been described as “more
aggressive” in recent years, but this aggression is more rhetorical
than real. China’s goals are purely defensive, merely aimed at
upholding its territorial integrity.
In comparison, research by the Fletcher Centre for Strategic
Studies at Tufts University found that the US had been involved in
an estimated 500 international military interventions since 1776,
with almost 60 per cent occurring between 1950 and 2017. One-third
of those interventions took place after 1999, when the Cold War era
is generally considered to have ended.
In recent years, the US has transformed the framing of its military
theatre in Asia from the “Asia-Pacific” to the “Indo-Pacific”. It
has made significant strides in cementing security alliances
encircling China. These include the formation of the Quadrilateral
Security Dialogue with Australia, India and Japan in 2007, the
signing of the Force Posture Agreement with Australia in 2014 and
the establishment of the Aukus security grouping with Australia and
the United Kingdom in 2021.
As part of Aukus, Australia agreed in March to purchase a fleet of
nuclear-powered submarines worth up to A$368 billion (US$237
million) over the next three decades. That would greatly enhance
its forward presence in the Pacific Ocean.
More recently, the latest Australia-US Ministerial Consultations
ended with Australia agreeing to further expand the US military
footprint in the country. The agreement includes more regular and
longer US submarine visits to Australia, upgrading airbases in the
north of the country and embedding US intelligence personnel in
Australia’s Defence Intelligence Organisation.
According to an estimate in June by the Arms Control Association,
the US has the world’s second-largest stockpile of nuclear
warheads, with 5,244, compared to 410 for China. The US is also
reportedly working with Japan to build a defence system to counter
hypersonic missiles and recruiting allies to defend Taiwan in the
event that Beijing resorts to the use of force to take the
island.
With the US so aggressive and effective in forming alliances around
the world to entrench its global military dominance, the rest of
the world has much to fear from being crushed by the world’s
superpower if its will is denied.
In the run-up to next year’s US elections, many politicians are
competing to be seen as the most hawkish on China despite the many
costs and dangers of such a single-minded strategy. This can only
be a recipe for instability. Even more worrying is that, despite
being charged with 91 offences in four criminal cases so far,
former president Donald Trump’s popularity is growing and he
remains the front-runner for the Republican nomination.
Barring an unforeseen turn of events, the 2024 US presidential
election is likely to be a 2020 rematch between the unpopular
incumbent Biden and Trump, who stands accused of conspiring to
commit the greatest crime against democracy and overturn the
legitimate outcome of an election. The prospect of such a rematch
will not inspire confidence among many people in the US political
system or in the quality of the voters who hand out the keys to the
White House.
With such a combination of toxic politics in Washington and its
obsession with global dominance, don’t we have a lot more to fear
from the US than from peaceful China?
