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2023-09-17 06:45阅读：
Too late for 'full blocking sanctions' on China chip
makers
US politicians baying for stronger restrictions on Huawei and SMIC
as previous measures failed to stop production of new 7nm
chip
By SCOTT FOSTER
The release of Huawei’s 5G Mate 60 Pro smartphone has sparked
speculation that the Biden administration will further tighten the
screws on China’s technological development with intensified
sanctions. But what could it do after previous measures apparently
failed and what would be the likely retaliation from China?
“The time has come to end all US technology exports to both Huawei
and SMIC to make clear any firm that flouts US law and undermines
our national security will be cut off from our technology,” said US
Congressman Mike Gallagher, chairman of the House Select Committee
on China, referring to the two leading Chinese tech
companies.
House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul and several
of his colleagues, including Armed Service
s Committee Chairman Mike Rogers, Energy and Commerce Committee
Chair Cathy McMorris Rodgers and Gallagher, sent a September 14
letter to Under Secretary of the Bureau of Industry and Security
(BIS) Alan Estevez expressing their joint concern about the Huawei
smartphone’s 7-nanometer chip.
“Due to the ubiquity of US-origin technology throughout the
semiconductor supply chain, these reports suggest a violation of US
export control regulations,” the letter said. “We are extremely
troubled and perplexed,” the letter says, “about the Bureau of
Industry and Security’s (BIS) inability to effectively write and
enforce export control rules against violators, especially
China.”
The letter goes on: “For more than two years, our committees and
numerous members of Congress have written you regarding loopholes
in BIS rules attempting, unsuccessfully, to restrict technology to
Huawei and SMIC, among others. Despite this knowledge and continued
Congressional pressure to adopt stricter policies, BIS has
continued to grant licenses to Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
controlled companies, such as SMIC, worth hundreds of billions of
dollars. These companies support the CCP’s military and have been
responsible for manufacturing semiconductors that power Huawei’s 5G
devices, in violation of BIS’ export controls.”
McCaul and the other signatories recommend “full blocking
sanctions” on Huawei and SMIC and criminal charges against their
executives – even though they are foreign importers, not US
exporters. All of the letter’s signatories are Republicans, all of
whom have an interest in making President Joe Biden’s Democratic
Party look weak on China in an election season.
Dylan Patel of SemiAnalysis, a California research and consulting
firm specializing in the semiconductor supply chain, wrote: “As we
approach the 1-year anniversary on [sic] the October 7th China
sanctions, it is abundantly clear that the export controls are
failing… the Commerce Department’s standards were set at a level
that will not ultimately inhibit China from breaking through the
barriers set last fall.”
Patel recommends “a package of potential Western responses to China
related to front-end equipment, chemicals, advanced packaging, and
IP licensing that would totally shut out the CCP.”
Specifically, these include restricting exports of EDA (Electronic
Design Automation) tools; ArF immersion lithography systems,
photomasks, mask blanks and mask writers, epitaxy, etch,
deposition, ion implant, CMP (Chemical Mechanical Planarization),
metrology equipment and 3D IC packaging equipment; photoresists,
etching gas and other chemicals; and servicing of existing
equipment.
But would these intensified restrictions make it impossible for the
Chinese to produce advanced chips such as the 7nm Kirin 9000 series
processor designed by Huawei subsidiary HiSilicon and made by SMIC
that powers the Mate 60 Pro or other advanced artificial
intelligence (AI) processors?
Exports of ArF immersion lithography equipment to China are now
restricted by the Netherlands and Japan, where they are made. But
the Chinese have already bought many of these machines and, as
demonstrated by the Mate 60 Pro’s processor, SMIC engineers know
how to use them.
Exports of EUV systems, the most advanced type of lithography,
essential for producing chips at 5nm and below, have been
restricted since 2019. ArF immersion is the most advanced type of
previous-generation DUV lithography.
Exports of epitaxial wafers and etch, cleaning, deposition,
annealing, metrology and related equipment from the US, Japan and
the Netherlands have also been restricted.
But the Chinese have also imported a lot of these machines and have
started to make their own epitaxial wafers. In the case of SMIC and
other companies that have adequately prepared, the latest sanctions
might not stop them from ramping up production for another two or
three years.
That is a guess based on the large amounts of semiconductor
production equipment the Chinese have imported, representing
roughly 25% of total worldwide sales in recent years.
It is not clear how large their stockpiles are or exactly what they
include, however. And they are probably not going to reveal that
publicly anytime soon. Last May, SMIC removed all mention of its
14nm process from its website, leading to speculation that US
sanctions had crimped its production. Now, though, the company has
7nm chips in mass production.
The Chinese are well aware of the dangers posed by sanctions and
have moved aggressively to mitigate those risks. While importing as
much advanced equipment and materials as possible, Chinese firms
are also working flat out to produce their own.
The lesson was driven home by the example of YMTC, China’s top NAND
flash memory maker, which was unable to complete its second factory
after sanctions cut off its access to US equipment and engineering
services at the end of last year. YMTC is now switching to domestic
and alternative foreign suppliers, but the company reportedly faces
a long, hard slog.
Several Chinese companies make photoresists, including Jiangsu Nata
Opto-electronic Material, Red Avenue, Jingrui, Shanghai Sinyang,
and Xuzhou Bokang Information Chemicals. So far, industry sources
say their products can only be used down to 28nm, but photoresists
for more advanced process nodes all the way to 5nm are under
development. China’s Kaimeite Gases is a certified supplier of
ASML.
Shanghai Micro Electronics Equipment (SMEE) reportedly plans to
deliver its first 28nm-capable DUV lithography system, which can
make 28nm chips, by the end of this year.
Other Chinese equipment companies include AMEC (epitaxy, etch and
deposition), Naura (etch, cleaning and deposition), CEC Electronics
(ion implant), Sizone (CMP) and Kincoto (packaging
equipment).
Chinese companies appear to be making – or at least trying to make
–everything needed to produce semiconductors, from EDA to silicon
and other types of wafers, chemicals and other materials, and the
entire range of chip-making equipment and components. Their
products are lower quality than imported ones and can still only
meet a fraction of demand, but quality and quantity are improving
every year.
More than 600 Chinese semiconductor equipment makers attended the
China Semiconductor Equipment Annual Conference and Semiconductor
Equipment and Core Components Exhibition held in Wuxi in early
August.
At the event, as reported by the South China Morning Post, Jacky
Lin, CEO of Honghu Suzhou Semiconductor Technology, said that
“Without US sanctions, China’s semiconductor industry would
probably have continued on its old path as a pure chip equipment
buyer, manufacturing for others.”
Now, if “full blocking sanctions” are imposed, foreign suppliers
might eventually lose the entire Chinese market. Some US
politicians might not be worried about that, but US tech companies
are, and it would probably be nearly impossible to persuade Europe,
Japan, South Korea and Taiwan to completely abandon the Chinese
chip market.
CEOs Jensen Huang of Nvidia and Peter Wennink of ASML have warned
the US and European governments that whatever the Chinese cannot
buy, they will make themselves. In an interview with DigiTimes,
Wennick said that the restrictive policies of Western governments
are compelling China to become highly innovative.
