西方应与东方平等对话
2023-12-15 22:41阅读：
It's time for the west and the rest to talk to each other
as equals
We live in an interdependent world which faces many pressing common
challenges
Kishore Mahbubani
It’s no secret that the west captured the imagination and respect
of the rest of the world for centuries. However, what is a secret —
because it is happening silently and invisibly in the minds of
billions — is that the west is now losing this respect.
It wasn’t western values that made the west pre-eminent, but
performance. Superior performance enabled the comparatively small
population of the west to pull ahead of the rest of humanity for
200 years and to use its technological superiority to colonise all
corners of the globe. It’s hard to believe that
barely 100 years ago, 100,000 Englishmen could effectively rule
over 300mn Indians. Despite the well-founded resentments of the
postcolonial era, the global south’s respect for western
outperformance was real and enduring.
In the postwar period in particular, most western societies were
stable and well-ordered, enjoying both consensual democracies and
sustained economic growth. Their leaders, even when not inspiring,
were sensible. As the American diplomat George Kennan wisely
predicted, it would be the “spiritual vitality” of the west that
would ultimately defeat the Soviet Union.
Unfortunately, if Kennan were alive today, he would struggle to
find similar vitality. Incompetence has replaced competence.
Societies that were once well-ordered have become deeply troubled
and politically volatile — Brexit and the rise of Donald Trump and
other populist leaders are clear signs of it. Many western
intellectuals see this, but persuade themselves that these are
merely temporary, cyclical challenges.
They are, however, not cyclical, but structural. Take, for example,
a statistic that every European leader should commit to memory:
from 2010 to 2020, the Asean bloc of south-east Asian nations, with
its $3tn gross domestic product, contributed more to global
economic growth than the EU with its $17tn GDP.
Economic incompetence, which will persist as long as western
leaders remain reluctant to impose on their own populations the
kind of bitter medicine they have long imposed on underperforming
developing economies, has now been matched by geopolitical
incompetence. The Russian invasion of Ukraine was illegal and has
rightly been condemned. Yet 85 per cent of the world’s population
live in countries that have not imposed sanctions on Russia. Does
this indicate Russian isolation? Or the opposite?
It is true that on Ukraine, the US, at least, has shown
geopolitical cunning rather than incompetence, creating European
dependence on Washington at a time when the Americans want to rally
support for applying greater pressure on China. Yet the US may come
to find that these geopolitical dividends turn out to be temporary.
Russia could still collapse under combined western pressure,
although this seems increasingly unlikely. Volodymyr Zelenskyy,
Ukraine’s president, may have to accept a painful compromise. And
if that is the outcome, the non-western countries will ask, ‘What
was the point of it all?’
The massive amounts of aid sent to Ukraine only confirmed the
growing belief in the global south that the west doesn’t really
care for it. Significantly, the Russian invasion took place while
memories were still fresh of the Covid pandemic, during which the
global south saw a surplus of vaccines in the west that was not
shared with them.
Most haunting of all for governments in that region is the
possibility that Trump could return to power. And if he does it
will be a nastier and angrier Trump who will tear up the climate
accords again, ignore the UN and use American power to bully other
countries bilaterally
Even with the best social science tools at its disposal, the
American establishment still can’t figure out the sources of the
anger that is leading so many Americans to vote for Trump. A
bitterly divided society can no longer serve as the “shining city
on the hill” for the rest of the world.
All of which is to say that something profound is happening in the
world — a kind of metaphysical detachment of the west from the
rest.
Where many people in the rest of the world once saw the west as the
answer to their problems, they now realise that they will have to
find their own way. But does this mean a total decoupling of the
west and the rest is inevitable? Absolutely not. We still live in
an interdependent world which faces many pressing common global
challenges.
We have to talk to each other. But we must do so as equals. The
condescension must end. The time has come for a dialogue based on
mutual respect between the west and the rest.
