看空中国经济将自毁声誉
2023-12-13 09:05阅读：
翻开一份西方的财经报纸阅读，你可能会觉得中国经济表现糟糕。诚然，中国经济仍然存在问题，但这种看法不仅是错误的，而且有可能损害英语出版物的公信力和我们的决策者作出理性决策的能力。
上周，中国的物价数据显示出轻微的通货紧缩，西方财经媒体利用这一数据大肆渲染。英国《金融时报》的标题是“中国通货紧缩加剧，经济压力增大”。彭博社称“中国消费价格下降加剧，助长通货紧缩担忧”。中国所经历的轻度通货紧缩确实源于经济结构性问题，尤其是过度依赖投资而对消费依赖不足。然而一旦超过某个限度，这些负面报道就变成彻头彻尾的误导。
上周公布的另外两项数据显示，中国经济增长强劲。第一项数据来自财新发布的服务业采购经理人指数调查。该调查显示，行业增长强于预期，而悲观评论者曾对此担忧。有趣的是，私营部门对中国服务业的调查显示，中国服务业的扩张速度快于中国政府的官方调查结果。后者显示11月中国服务业出现了轻微萎缩。那些指责中国人编造经济统计数据的人最好能解释一下为什么政府调查要比民间调查保守。无论从哪个角度看，中国的服务业现在都在扩张。
此外，中国的出口数据显示，7个月来首次出口同比正增长。结合服务业数据，这表明中国经济正在广泛扩张。必须强调的是，这并不是名义上的经济繁荣，而是符合国际货币基金组织自身预测的持续增长。这些数据表明，中国今年将轻松实现5%的增长目标，而看空中国经济的人在对中国经济作出判断时似乎忽略了这一预测。
有传言称，中国的半导体生产可能取得了进展。如果该信息属实，则表明中国的进步甚至超过了此前中国品牌智能手机所采用的7纳米芯片。那款手机曾震惊西方分析师，他们原以为这种技术超出了中国人的生产能力。看起来，美国主导的芯片制裁只会迫使中国在国内开发所需的技术，从而削弱西方现有厂商的竞争力。
中国
经济不会再像本世纪初头十年那样高速增长了。现在，也没有人抱有那样的期望，毕竟中国民众已经变得更加富裕了。事实上，中国政府自己的增长目标也反映了这一新现实。但一定程度上，对中国一味看空就会无异于自毁声誉。
去年，中国证监会副主席方星海在一次采访中说：“我建议国际投资者了解中国的真实情况，了解我们政府的真正意图是什么，不要看太多国际媒体。”对此，瑞银董事长科尔姆·凯莱赫回应说，他和同事们已经不再阅读美国媒体的相关报道。
西方财经媒体继续鼓吹看空中国的论调，而自己的声誉不受损失的状况还能持续多久？更重要的是，他们认为自己在帮助谁？
正如凯莱赫去年提到的那样，政策制定者会因信息灵通而获益，而真正与中国打交道的商界人士也会很快转向其他新闻来源。对中国的批评性报道可能会让最近对中国反感的西方人感觉良好。然而，那只是一种催眠剂，效果不会长久。
The West is wrong about China's economy
BY PHILIP PILKINGTON
Rumours of an impending collapse are greatly exaggerated
Open a Western business newspaper and one would probably come away
thinking that the Chinese economy is doing poorly, or perhaps even
on the verge of collapse. While it is true that the country’s
economy continues to suffer from structural problems, this
perception is not just wrong but risks undermining the credibility
of Anglophone publications and the capacity for our policymakers to
make rational decisions.
Last week Chinese price data showed mild deflation, a data point
out of which the Western financial press made hay. “China’s
deflation worsens as economic pressures mount”, read the Financial
Times headline. Bloomberg ran with “China’s consumer price drop
worsens, fuelling deflation fears”. The mild deflation that is
taking place in China does indeed stem from structural problems in
the economy — especially the fact that it is overly reliant on
investment spending and insufficiently reliant on consumer
spending. But, at a certain point, the negative press becomes
outright misleading.
Two other data points were released last week which show the
Chinese economy growing robustly. The first came from the private
sector Caixin Services Purchasing Managers Index survey, which
showed stronger than expected growth in the very sector about which
bearish commentators have raised concerns.
Interestingly, the private sector surveys of the Chinese services
sector show it expanding quicker than the official Chinese
government studies which showed a mild contraction in November.
Those who accuse the Chinese of inventing economic statistics would
do well to explain why government surveys are more conservative
than their private sector equivalents. Whatever way one looks at
it, the Chinese services sector is now expanding.
Then there is Chinese export data, which showed exports expanding
for the first time in seven months. Combined with the service
sector data, this shows a broad-based expansion of the Chinese
economy. Not a veritable economic boom, it must be stressed, but
continuous growth that is consistent with the IMF’s own
projections. These show that Beijing will comfortably meet its 5%
growth target this year — a projection China bears seem to ignore
when they pass judgement on the economy.
There are rumours that China may have advanced in its capacity to
produce semiconductors. A specialist hardware website notes how a
recent Huawei laptop listing suggests that the Chinese have broken
the 5 nanometer chip barrier. If the listing is correct, it
suggests that China has advanced even further than the 7 nanometer
processor found in the new Huawei Mate 60 smartphone. The phone
shocked Western analysts who thought that such technology was
beyond the production capacity of the Chinese. It increasingly
looks like the American-led chip sanctions are just pressuring
China to produce the needed technology domestically, and thereby
undermining the competitiveness of incumbent Western players.
The Chinese economy will not grow at the runaway rates it did in
the 2000s and 2010s. No one expects this now that the average
Chinese person has become wealthier. Indeed, the Chinese
government’s own growth targets reflect this new reality. But at a
certain point, the obsessive bearishness about China is
discrediting. Last year at a conference, Fang Xinghai, vice-chair
of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, stated: “I would
advise international investors to find out what’s really going on
in China and what’s the real intention of our government by
themselves. Don’t read too much of the international media.” In
response to this, UBS Chairman Colm Kelleher said that he and his
colleagues were not reading Western media on the issue.
How long can the financial papers continue to push their bearish
China narrative without discrediting themselves? More importantly,
who exactly do they think they are helping? Policymakers benefit
from being well-informed, and businesspeople who actually engage
with China will quickly turn to other news sources, as Kelleher
alluded to last year. Critical stories on China may make Westerners
who have recently soured on the country feel good. Yet they are
nothing but a soporific, and the effects cannot last forever.
https://unherd.com/thepost/the-west-is-wrong-about-chinas-economy/
