西方盯上中亚“中间走廊”
2024-06-24 20:33阅读：
美国贸易代表戴琪6月中旬访问了哈萨克斯坦和乌兹别克斯坦，这是美国贸易代表有史以来首次访问中亚地区。美国和其他国家在阿斯塔纳共同主持了美国-中亚贸易和投资框架协议理事会会议。目标是支持跨里海国际运输通道(即“中间走廊”)，旨在通过一条经由里海和高加索地区的路线绕开俄罗斯，将该地区与西方连接起来。
提高中间走廊的效率仍然是个难题，世界银行已经确定了到2030年使该走廊沿线贸易增长三倍的10项行动。针对该走廊的中亚节点和主干线的具体建议，包括旨在减少城市中心拥堵的绕行路线，连接哈萨克斯坦和乌兹别克斯坦的新铁路，以及获得现代化设备以增加哈萨克斯坦阿克套港的泊位容量。
世界银行和其他机构还努力通过系统数字化来同步地区机构和改善边境管理，以期最大限度地减少货物清关服务的等待时间。这些改进将会带来阻止地区外大国挑动本地行为者相互争斗的额外好处。世界银行认为该走廊是“中亚和南高加索地区经济发展的支柱”。
中间走廊成员国之间加强合作至关重要，但随着其他国家开始实施封堵该走廊的项目，事情将变得更具挑战性。拖延已久的中国-吉尔吉斯斯坦-乌兹别克斯坦铁路即将动工。这条新路线将与中间走廊竞争，引导贸易流从西方转向中国。
多个地区机制在中亚和高加索地区有着重叠的成员，包括突厥语国家组织和总部设在阿斯塔纳的亚洲相互协作与信任措施会议。考虑到边境争端、阿塞拜疆和土库曼斯坦偶尔出现的分歧以及有时相互矛盾的目标，中亚和南高加索地区实现地区内部合作和一体化仍然具有挑战性。尽管如此，中亚必须保持战略自主。
在6月11日于伦敦举行的第二次里海互联互通会议上，哈萨克斯坦驻英国大使马格然·伊利亚索夫宣布：“我们必须把它变成一条独立存在的可行路线……就目前而言，当我说‘我们的’，我们的雄心不仅是(哈萨克斯坦的)，
也是所有在场国家的。”
虽然哈萨克斯坦肯定不是唯一在中间走廊和西方合作中有着既得利益的国家，但它似乎确实在为获得这些利益而付出最大努力——比西方更努力。哈萨克斯坦长期以来的多元外交政策需要西方的投资。哈萨克斯坦总统卡瑟姆若马尔特·托卡耶夫多次呼吁西方加大投资，以期中间走廊全面建成。
本来应该很容易的一件事却令人沮丧地未能完成。随着乌克兰战争的继续，欧洲坚决支持这一走廊。它的建成将为中亚大宗商品和中国商品开辟一条绕过俄罗斯的路线。
6月12日，中间走廊的新协调平台在阿斯塔纳启用，旨在“把该走廊打造成可持续、有竞争力和高效的路线”。这个新平台是1月底在布鲁塞尔举行的欧盟-中亚交通互联互通投资者论坛的成果。会议目标是将跨里海国际运输通道升级为一条“在15天或者更短的时间内将欧洲和中亚连接起来的多模式、现代化、有竞争力、可持续、可预测、智能和快捷的路线”。
由于贸易量较小，美国不是该走廊的主要直接受益者。然而，它与中亚国家的贸易正在增长，如果该走廊全面运转，贸易将进一步增长。2023年，美国与哈萨克斯坦的贸易额超过34亿美元，与乌兹别克斯坦接近4.4亿美元，与塔吉克斯坦约为1.19亿美元，这还不包括通用汽车公司在乌兹别克斯坦扩大生产等投资。
对华盛顿来说，中亚的重要性至高无上。这里有着丰富的稀土和石油等重要大宗商品，与俄罗斯、中国、伊朗和阿富汗接壤。华盛顿近期将重点放在该地区，以获得更多的此类资源，并确保北京不会享有垄断地位，但行动必须支持言论。
The West Is Laser-Focused on Central Asia's Middle
Corridor. So Is China.
For more commodities to move west from Central Asia, better
infrastructure, more inter-agency cooperation, and modern customs
systems are necessary.
By Wilder Alejandro Sánchez
The U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) Kathleen Tai visited
Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan in mid-June, the first time a USTR has
ever visited the Central Asian region. There, the U.S. co-chaired a
U.S.-Central Asia Trade and Investment Framework Agreement (TIFA)
Council meeting in Astana. The goal? Support the Trans-Caspian
International Transport Route (TITR), better known as the Middle
Corridor, which aims to connect the region with the West, bypassing
Russia via a route across the Caspian and through the Caucasus. In
doing so, the region hopes to boost Western investment for more
prosperity but also to balance off China and Russia.
Making the Middle Corridor efficient remains a challenge, and the
World Bank has identified ten actions that can triple trade along
the corridor by 2030. Winnie Wang, program leader for Europe and
Central Asia at the World Bank, discussed these suggestions at the
recent Trans Caspian Forum in Washington, D.C. Specific proposals
aimed at the Central Asian nodes and arteries of the Corridor
include bypasses to reduce congestion in urban centers, a new
railway to connect Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, and acquiring modern
equipment to increase berth capacity at Kazakhstan’s Aktau port.
The World Bank and others also strive to synchronize regional
institutions and improve border management by digitizing systems to
minimize wait times as cargo clears customs services. These
improvements will have the added benefit of preventing
extra-regional powers from pitting local actors against one
another. The World Bank views the corridor as the “backbone for
Central Asian and South Caucasus economic development.”
Greater cooperation among Middle Corridor members is essential, but
it will become more challenging as other countries begin projects
to smother the corridor. After much cajoling by Beijing and
failures by Western actors to effectively engage with the region,
the much-delayed China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway is on track to
be built. This new route will compete with the Middle Corridor,
directing trade flows away from the West and toward China.
Several regional mechanisms have overlapping membership across
Central Asia and the Caucasus, including the Organization for
Turkic States or the Conference on Interaction and Confidence
Building Measures in Asia (CICA), headquartered in Astana. Alas,
achieving intra-regional cooperation and integration between
Central Asia and the South Caucasus remains challenging, given
border disputes, occasional disagreements between Azerbaijan and
Turkmenistan, and sometimes contradictory objectives. Still,
Central Asia must maintain its strategic autonomy.
Looking to the future, a broader regional mechanism in charge of
the corridor is needed to take the route to the next level,
particularly if other countries join the effort (such as Uzbekistan
or Armenia). At the second Caspian Connectivity Conference in
London, organized on June 11, Magzhan Ilyassov, ambassador of
Kazakhstan to the U.K., declared: “We have to turn it into a viable
route that exists by itself… For now, our ambition when I say
‘ours’ is not only [Kazakhstan] but also all of the countries
present here.”
While Kazakhstan certainly isn’t the only country with a vested
interest in the Middle Corridor and Western cooperation, it does
seem to be doing the most to realize it – more than the West
itself. Kazakhstan’s long-standing multi-vector foreign policy
requires Western investment. Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart
Tokayev, a former foreign minister, has repeatedly called for more
Western investment to realize the Middle Corridor fully.
What should be an easy sell remains frustratingly unrealized. As
the war in Ukraine continues, Europe strongly supports the
corridor. Its realization would allow a route to Central Asian
commodities and Chinese goods, bypassing Russia.
On June 12, a new coordination platform for the Middle Corridor was
launched in Astana to “turn the corridor into a sustainable,
competitive, and efficient route.” This new platform is a result of
the Investors Forum for EU-Central Asia Transport Connectivity,
which met in Brussels in late January. The goal of the meeting was
to upgrade the TITR into a “multimodal, modern, competitive,
sustainable, predictable, smart and fast route linking Europe and
Central Asia in 15 days or less.”
While Europe acts, the United States lags. It is not a major
immediate beneficiary of the corridor due to a smaller trade
volume. However, trade with Central Asian states is growing and
would grow more if the corridor were fully operational. In 2023,
the United States recorded over $3.4 billion in trade with
Kazakhstan, almost $440 million with Uzbekistan, and around $119
million with Tajikistan, not including investments such as General
Motor’s expanded production in Uzbekistan.
For Washington, Central Asia’s importance is paramount. It is rich
in vital commodities like rare earth elements and oil and borders
Russia, China, Iran, and Afghanistan. Washington’s new focus on the
region to procure greater access to these resources and ensure that
Beijing does not enjoy a monopoly is admirable, but actions must
back up the rhetoric.
Anecdotally, one U.S. company present in Central Asia is the
Pennsylvania-headquartered Wabtec Corporation, which produces
locomotives and freight cars; earlier this year, it was announced
that Wabtec acquired full ownership of a locomotive assembly plant
in Kazakhstan. Upgrades to the locomotive fleet align with the
World Bank’s recommendations and would help anchor this U.S.
company in the region.
As the World Bank has argued, for more commodities to move West
from Central Asia, better infrastructure, more inter-agency
cooperation, and modern customs systems are necessary. Countries
like Kazakhstan have a plethora of commodities that the global
markets covet, with international companies from the United States,
European Union, and international financial institutions, including
the World Bank, EBRD, Asia Development Bank, and others, providing
much-needed investment and policy recommendations to improve the
Middle Corridor’s efficiency.
Regarding Washington and the Middle Corridor, Tokayev summed it up
well: “The United States has always been our strategic partner … I
think that we have done a lot. But we need to go further to advance
cooperation in so many areas of mutual interest.” The historical
visit by USTR Tai to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan is important, and
hopefully, the momentum of positive engagement will continue past
the November elections in the U.S.
