稳步前进的中国海军
2024-12-16 18:56阅读：
Big Chinese naval exercise leaves Taiwan and US struggling
for response
Taipei and Washington draw different conclusions over meaning of
unannounced military deployment
Kathrin Hille in Taipei and Demetri Sevastopulo in Washington
A week ago, Taiwan was bracing for a Chinese military exercise to
“punish”Lai Ching-te for a trip abroad that included two short
visits to the US. It would have been another show of force from
Beijing in retaliation for Taiwanese leaders asserting their
country’s independence.
But what happened next took Taipei by surprise. Its military and
national security officials observed what they called the largest
Chinese naval deployment in nearly 30 years. At the same time,
Beijing announced partial rest
rictions on air traffic in seven zones hugging its coastline from
Shanghai to Hong Kong for two days.
There was not a word from the People’s Liberation Army, in contrast
to the propaganda campaigns which tend to accompany its drills
targeting Taipei.
Taiwan and the US — its only foreign defender against China’s
threat to annex it by force if Taipei resists unification
indefinitely — have drawn drastically different conclusions.
Taiwan’s defence ministry on Monday set up an emergency response
centre and held snap readiness drills. “No matter if they have
announced drills, the level of the threat to us is severe,” it
said.
Washington, however, said that while Chinese military activity in
the East and South China Seas was “elevated” following a broader
increase over the last several years, it was “consistent” with
levels seen during other large exercises. US officials emphasised
that they did not see the activity as a response to Lai’s brief
visits to Hawaii and Guam.
One senior US official said it was important to distinguish between
a coercion campaign in response to a transit and the kind of
“routine large regional exercise” which appeared to have occurred.
“They made a choice not to execute a pressure campaign in response
to the Lai transit,” the official said.
China may have decided not to respond specifically to the Lai
transit because it was “low profile”, they added. But it was
possible Beijing did not want to create turbulence during the US
presidential transition, or that the moves were related to
political turmoil inside the PLA due to corruption probes.
The divergent messages highlight the challenge for Taiwan, the US
and its allies in assessing China’s intentions and responding to
Beijing’s use of its increasingly powerful military in a creeping
pressure campaign on several of its neighbours.
Observers said that China could sow confusion and uncertainty among
its adversaries by combining unannounced drills with traditional
ones. They added that conducting exercises of this scale more
regularly would make it harder to spot preparations for an attack
on Taiwan.
Taiwanese national security officials said the deployments of the
past week involved close to 100 ships, two-thirds from the PLA Navy
and one-third from the coastguard. The presence, spread out over
the East and South China Seas as well as waters far off Taiwan’s
east coast in the western Pacific, was built up over 70 days. China
did this in part by keeping ships offshore after smaller patrols
and drills in October and November, officials added. Taiwan’s
defence ministry said the manoeuvres involved all three of the
PLA’s coastal theatre commands for the first time.
“We agree that this went far beyond Taiwan, it is a demonstration
that they can lock down the First Island Chain,” said one of the
officials, referring to the chain of islands from Japan to the
Philippines that separates China from the Pacific Ocean. “But grey
zone tactics like this pose a growing threat to us and our
neighbours,” he said, referring to military moves below the
threshold of war.
The senior US official said Taiwan may have become overly alarmed
because it had more capabilities than in the past to detect what
China was doing. The official added that the US had not asked
Taiwan to dial back its rhetoric as it recognised Taipei might have
domestic political considerations.
Taiwan confirmed this played a role. “We decided to communicate
more clearly what we are seeing this time. Especially when China
remains silent, the public needs to know what is going on around
us,” said one senior official.
A western diplomat said Taipei was trying to “wake up the public”
as Lai is scrambling to strengthen the country’s defences. “Making
people aware of PLA exercises works better than government demands
to increase military readiness.”
The US official said the exercises highlighted the increasingly
expansive nature of the PLA’s manoeuvres further away from the
Chinese mainland and later in the year into the winter. The changes
also had implications for Japan and the Philippines.
“China has crossed some new line in every of their past exercises,”
said a senior Japanese official. “Now they have created another new
normal: That they can do manoeuvres of this size without
announcement, leaving all of us struggling to respond.”
