LinBoqiang:Withhighdependencyonimportedoil,Chinaneedstocontinuestrategicpetroleumre
2020-02-14 20:58阅读：
According to a recent blueprint report on China's oil and gas
industry for year 2018-19, the nation's apparent oil consumption
reached 648 million tons in 2018, up 6.95 percent compared with the
previous year, while China's net imports of crude oil rose 10.9
percent year-on-year to 460 million tons. The report also said that
China's dependency on imported crude oil was approaching 70 percent
last year.
Needless to say, the dependency rate is quite high, but in my
opinion, it may still be a conservative calculation. With different
sets of statistical indicators, China's dependency on imported oil
should have already exceeded the 70 percent mark. More importantly,
the government should be aware that such high oil dependency is
actually a very unsafe source of risk.
What's even more worrying is that Japan and the US are estimated to
hold at least 140 days and 100 days, respectively, of oil stocks
based on their net import volumes, while China's current strategic
petroleum reserve (S
PR) is only equivalent to about 40 to 50 days of the country's net
import cover. An internationally accepted practice regarding the
SPR is that a country must hold a minimum 90 days of its net import
cover for its energy supply security so the country can maintain
its normal industrial operations while relying on domestic oil
storage in the event of unexpected circumstances. In other words,
China's high dependency on imported crude oil would make it awkward
to deal with extreme conditions such as wars and natural
disasters.
Moreover, the current high dependency on imported crude oil in
China is unlikely to see much change in the short term, which is
mainly the result of the following factors.
First of all, China's domestic oil fields have generally reached
the limits of their oil production capacity, and it is hard to see
much room for further increase. Also, China's crude oil output has
been on the decline in recent years. According to the blueprint
report, the country's crude oil output fell for the third
consecutive year to stay at 189 million tons in 2018. There are two
main factors behind the declining trend. First, some large domestic
oil fields like Daqing oil field are on the verge of depletion.
Second, some oil fields may still have some oil reserves, but
considering the low oil prices and increasing production costs, it
is much cheaper to import crude oil than to produce.
That being said, China may be able to maintain its oil output
around the level of 180 million tons, but it is basically
impossible to increase the output by a big margin. Statistics also
showed that China's remaining proven oil reserves may support the
current output level for about 10 years. Of course, there may be
some new discoveries during the time, but domestic oil output is
unlikely to rise sharply, even with some new reserve
discoveries.
As to the demand side, consumption demand for oil is still growing
in China. Specifically, the demand from driving is growing
exponentially. As a developing country, China will see continuous
economic growth, and its per capita car ownership will undoubtedly
keep rising. According to the
Ministry of Commerce, while the growth rate of auto
sales fell by 2.8 percentage points in 2018, China's auto sales
still hit more than 28 million, ranking first in the world. With an
increase of 28 million vehicles running on the road every year, no
wonder oil consumption is bound to rise for the foreseeable
future.
The fast-growing energy demand and the declining domestic oil
output have resulted in a high dependency on imported crude oil.
From the perspective of energy security, it is indeed very unsafe,
which is why the government has been doing everything possible to
promote electric vehicles and hydrogen fuel in recent years.
Despite all these efforts, the development of electric vehicles and
other new energy vehicles still cannot keep up with the growth of
oil consumption demand.
However, it should be noted that the probability of extreme
situations is rare, but it doesn't mean we can take no precautions.
There is always something we can do to prevent the worst
scenario.
For instance, while China has been building up its SPR stocks all
the time, it rarely discloses its commercial or strategic oil
reserve data, so it is difficult to estimate the pace of its
buildup. According to official information, China plans to have its
national petroleum reserves at some 500 million barrels by 2020. In
2014, China made its first announcement about the SPR, which then
totaled 12.43 million tons. The figure climbed to 26.1 million tons
in 2015. It is now generally estimated that China's oil bases are
storing about 40 to 50 days of oil use, and it is essential for the
country to continue stockpiling toward the target of 90 days of
import oil cover in the future.
Another important aspect is public transportation. Great efforts
are required to vigorously develop convenient rail transport and
raise the cost of driving to encourage environmentally friendly
options for travel.
The article was compiled based on an interview with Lin
Boqiang, dean of the China Institute for Studies in Energy Policy
at Xiamen University. bizopinion@globaltimes.com.cn
